Alam Sutera (Indonesia) Market Value
| ASRI Stock | IDR 159.00 3.00 1.85% |
| Symbol | Alam |
Alam Sutera 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alam Sutera's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alam Sutera.
| 09/30/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alam Sutera on September 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alam Sutera Realty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alam Sutera over 60 days. Alam Sutera is related to or competes with Lippo Cikarang, Lippo Karawaci, Intiland Development, Mitra Pinasthika, Jakarta Int, Indosterling Technomedia, and Indosat Tbk. More
Alam Sutera Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alam Sutera's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alam Sutera Realty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.31 |
Alam Sutera Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alam Sutera's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alam Sutera's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alam Sutera historical prices to predict the future Alam Sutera's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.019 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.85) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1026 |
Alam Sutera Realty Backtested Returns
Alam Sutera Realty secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0528, which signifies that the company had a -0.0528% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Alam Sutera Realty exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alam Sutera's mean deviation of 3.33, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -1.49, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alam Sutera are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Alam Sutera is expected to outperform it. At this point, Alam Sutera Realty has a negative expected return of -0.24%. Please make sure to confirm Alam Sutera's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Alam Sutera Realty performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Alam Sutera Realty has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alam Sutera time series from 30th of September 2024 to 30th of October 2024 and 30th of October 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alam Sutera Realty price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Alam Sutera price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 298.14 |
Alam Sutera Realty lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alam Sutera stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alam Sutera's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alam Sutera returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alam Sutera has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alam Sutera regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alam Sutera stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alam Sutera stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alam Sutera stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alam Sutera Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alam Sutera's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alam Sutera stock have on its future price. Alam Sutera autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alam Sutera autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alam Sutera stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alam Sutera Realty.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Alam Sutera financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alam Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alam with respect to the benefits of owning Alam Sutera security.