Astra Graphia (Indonesia) Market Value
| ASGR Stock | IDR 810.00 10.00 1.25% |
| Symbol | Astra |
Astra Graphia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Astra Graphia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Astra Graphia.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Astra Graphia on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Astra Graphia Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Astra Graphia over 90 days. Astra Graphia is related to or competes with Astra Otoparts, Citra Marga, Hexindo Adiperkasa, Metrodata Electronics, and Gajah Tunggal. More
Astra Graphia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Astra Graphia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Astra Graphia Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.83) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.42 |
Astra Graphia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Astra Graphia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Astra Graphia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Astra Graphia historical prices to predict the future Astra Graphia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0219 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7519 |
Astra Graphia Tbk Backtested Returns
Astra Graphia Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.098, which signifies that the company had a -0.098 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Astra Graphia Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Astra Graphia's Mean Deviation of 0.8593, risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Standard Deviation of 1.17 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.17, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Astra Graphia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Astra Graphia is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Astra Graphia Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.11%. Please make sure to confirm Astra Graphia's maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Astra Graphia Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Astra Graphia Tbk has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Astra Graphia time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Astra Graphia Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Astra Graphia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 166.94 |
Astra Graphia Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Astra Graphia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Astra Graphia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Astra Graphia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Astra Graphia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Astra Graphia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Astra Graphia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Astra Graphia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Astra Graphia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Astra Graphia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Astra Graphia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Astra Graphia stock have on its future price. Astra Graphia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Astra Graphia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Astra Graphia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Astra Graphia Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Astra Graphia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Graphia security.