Dogu Aras (Turkey) Market Value
| ARASE Stock | 52.30 1.20 2.24% |
| Symbol | Dogu |
Dogu Aras 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Dogu Aras' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Dogu Aras.
| 11/22/2024 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Dogu Aras on November 22, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dogu Aras Enerji or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dogu Aras over 30 days. Dogu Aras is related to or competes with Biotrend Cevre, Aydem Yenilenebilir, and Galata Wind. More
Dogu Aras Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Dogu Aras' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Dogu Aras Enerji upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.018 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.95 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.24) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.43 |
Dogu Aras Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Dogu Aras' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Dogu Aras' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Dogu Aras historical prices to predict the future Dogu Aras' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0308 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0674 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0155 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5186 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dogu Aras' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dogu Aras Enerji Backtested Returns
Dogu Aras Enerji secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0697, which denotes the company had a -0.0697% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Dogu Aras Enerji exposes thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Dogu Aras' Downside Deviation of 3.11, coefficient of variation of 3330.24, and Mean Deviation of 1.82 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.14, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Dogu Aras' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Dogu Aras is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Dogu Aras Enerji has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to confirm Dogu Aras' downside variance, day median price, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis , to decide if Dogu Aras Enerji performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.4 |
Poor reverse predictability
Dogu Aras Enerji has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dogu Aras time series from 22nd of November 2024 to 7th of December 2024 and 7th of December 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dogu Aras Enerji price movement. The serial correlation of -0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current Dogu Aras price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.52 |
Dogu Aras Enerji lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Dogu Aras stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Dogu Aras' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Dogu Aras returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Dogu Aras has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Dogu Aras regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Dogu Aras stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Dogu Aras stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Dogu Aras stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Dogu Aras Lagged Returns
When evaluating Dogu Aras' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Dogu Aras stock have on its future price. Dogu Aras autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Dogu Aras autocorrelation shows the relationship between Dogu Aras stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Dogu Aras Enerji.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Dogu Stock
Dogu Aras financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dogu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dogu with respect to the benefits of owning Dogu Aras security.