Arita Prima (Indonesia) Market Value
| APII Stock | IDR 176.00 3.00 1.73% |
| Symbol | Arita |
Arita Prima 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arita Prima's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arita Prima.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arita Prima on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arita Prima Indonesia or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arita Prima over 30 days. Arita Prima is related to or competes with Bintang Mitra, Alkindo Naratama, Bayu Buana, Austindo Nusantara, and Colorpak Indonesia. PT Arita Prima Indonesia Tbk imports, distributes, and services valves, fittings, instrumentations, and control products... More
Arita Prima Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arita Prima's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arita Prima Indonesia upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.31 |
Arita Prima Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arita Prima's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arita Prima's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arita Prima historical prices to predict the future Arita Prima's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.11) |
Arita Prima Indonesia Backtested Returns
Arita Prima Indonesia secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0049, which signifies that the company had a -0.0049% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Arita Prima Indonesia exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arita Prima's Mean Deviation of 1.09, insignificant risk adjusted performance, and Standard Deviation of 1.46 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.24, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Arita Prima's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arita Prima is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Arita Prima Indonesia has a negative expected return of -0.0073%. Please make sure to confirm Arita Prima's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the information ratio and total risk alpha , to decide if Arita Prima Indonesia performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.28 |
Poor predictability
Arita Prima Indonesia has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arita Prima time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arita Prima Indonesia price movement. The serial correlation of 0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Arita Prima price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.04 |
Arita Prima Indonesia lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arita Prima stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arita Prima's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arita Prima returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arita Prima has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arita Prima regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arita Prima stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arita Prima stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arita Prima stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arita Prima Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arita Prima's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arita Prima stock have on its future price. Arita Prima autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arita Prima autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arita Prima stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arita Prima Indonesia.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Arita Prima financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arita Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arita with respect to the benefits of owning Arita Prima security.