Alcon AG (Switzerland) Market Value
| ALC Stock | CHF 80.16 0.48 0.60% |
| Symbol | Alcon |
Alcon AG 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alcon AG's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alcon AG.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 02/25/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alcon AG on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alcon AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alcon AG over 120 days. Alcon AG is related to or competes with Novartis, Givaudan, Lonza Group, ABB, and Swiss Life. Alcon, Inc. develops and manufactures eye care products for eye care professionals and their patients More
Alcon AG Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alcon AG's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alcon AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8786 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1056 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.81 |
Alcon AG Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alcon AG's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alcon AG's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alcon AG historical prices to predict the future Alcon AG's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0916 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0988 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0954 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.11 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1785 |
Alcon AG Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Alcon Stock to be very steady. Alcon AG secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0683, which signifies that the company had a 0.0683 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Alcon AG, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Alcon AG's mean deviation of 0.7668, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0916 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0603%. Alcon AG has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Alcon AG's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alcon AG is expected to be smaller as well. Alcon AG right now shows a risk of 0.88%. Please confirm Alcon AG sortino ratio, semi variance, and the relationship between the standard deviation and value at risk , to decide if Alcon AG will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.64 |
Very good reverse predictability
Alcon AG has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alcon AG time series from 28th of October 2024 to 27th of December 2024 and 27th of December 2024 to 25th of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alcon AG price movement. The serial correlation of -0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current Alcon AG price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.06 |
Alcon AG lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alcon AG stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alcon AG's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alcon AG returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alcon AG has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alcon AG regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alcon AG stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alcon AG stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alcon AG stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alcon AG Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alcon AG's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alcon AG stock have on its future price. Alcon AG autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alcon AG autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alcon AG stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alcon AG.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Alcon Stock Analysis
When running Alcon AG's price analysis, check to measure Alcon AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcon AG is operating at the current time. Most of Alcon AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcon AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcon AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcon AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.