ARN Media (Australia) Market Value
| A1N Stock | 0.72 0.01 1.37% |
| Symbol | ARN |
ARN Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARN Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARN Media.
| 12/07/2023 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ARN Media on December 7, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARN Media Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARN Media over 360 days. ARN Media is related to or competes with Aneka Tambang, BHP Group, Commonwealth Bank, Commonwealth Bank, Commonwealth Bank, Commonwealth Bank, and Rio Tinto. ARN Media is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
ARN Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARN Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARN Media Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1184 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.88 |
ARN Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARN Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARN Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARN Media historical prices to predict the future ARN Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1346 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4309 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.115 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.66 |
ARN Media Limited Backtested Returns
ARN Media appears to be dangerous, given 3 months investment horizon. ARN Media Limited secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for ARN Media Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of ARN Media's Mean Deviation of 2.12, semi deviation of 1.88, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1346 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, ARN Media holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.28, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, ARN Media's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ARN Media is expected to be smaller as well. Please check ARN Media's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether ARN Media's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
ARN Media Limited has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARN Media time series from 7th of December 2023 to 4th of June 2024 and 4th of June 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARN Media Limited price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current ARN Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
ARN Media Limited lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARN Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARN Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARN Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARN Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ARN Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARN Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARN Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARN Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ARN Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARN Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARN Media stock have on its future price. ARN Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARN Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARN Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARN Media Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for ARN Stock Analysis
When running ARN Media's price analysis, check to measure ARN Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARN Media is operating at the current time. Most of ARN Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARN Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARN Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARN Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.