Guotai Epoint's market value is the price at which a share of Guotai Epoint trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Guotai Epoint Software investors about its performance. Guotai Epoint is trading at 27.70 as of the 2nd of January 2025, a 4.45 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 28.99. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Guotai Epoint Software and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Guotai Epoint over a given investment horizon. Check out Guotai Epoint Correlation, Guotai Epoint Volatility and Guotai Epoint Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Guotai Epoint.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guotai Epoint's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guotai Epoint is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guotai Epoint's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Guotai Epoint 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guotai Epoint's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guotai Epoint.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guotai Epoint's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guotai Epoint Software upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guotai Epoint's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guotai Epoint's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guotai Epoint historical prices to predict the future Guotai Epoint's volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guotai Epoint. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guotai Epoint's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guotai Epoint's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guotai Epoint Software.
Guotai Epoint Software Backtested Returns
Guotai Epoint Software holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0842, which attests that the entity had a -0.0842% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guotai Epoint Software exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guotai Epoint's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.27, risk adjusted performance of 0.0991, and Downside Deviation of 3.36 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.29, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guotai Epoint's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guotai Epoint is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Guotai Epoint Software has a negative expected return of -0.36%. Please make sure to check out Guotai Epoint's information ratio, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Guotai Epoint Software performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation
-0.44
Modest reverse predictability
Guotai Epoint Software has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guotai Epoint time series from 13th of January 2023 to 8th of January 2024 and 8th of January 2024 to 2nd of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guotai Epoint Software price movement. The serial correlation of -0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current Guotai Epoint price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.44
Spearman Rank Test
-0.23
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
33.44
Guotai Epoint Software lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guotai Epoint stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guotai Epoint's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guotai Epoint returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guotai Epoint has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Guotai Epoint regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guotai Epoint stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guotai Epoint stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guotai Epoint stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Guotai Epoint Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guotai Epoint's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guotai Epoint stock have on its future price. Guotai Epoint autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guotai Epoint autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guotai Epoint stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guotai Epoint Software.
Guotai Epoint financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guotai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guotai with respect to the benefits of owning Guotai Epoint security.