Guotai Epoint (China) Market Value
| 688232 Stock | 26.74 0.96 3.47% |
| Symbol | Guotai |
Guotai Epoint 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guotai Epoint's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guotai Epoint.
| 11/05/2024 |
| 01/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guotai Epoint on November 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guotai Epoint Software or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guotai Epoint over 60 days. Guotai Epoint is related to or competes with BYD Co, China Mobile, Agricultural Bank, Industrial, China State, China Construction, and PetroChina. Guotai Epoint is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Guotai Epoint Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guotai Epoint's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guotai Epoint Software upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0827 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 28.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 19.82 |
Guotai Epoint Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guotai Epoint's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guotai Epoint's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guotai Epoint historical prices to predict the future Guotai Epoint's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0788 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5018 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4141 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1437 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.27 |
Guotai Epoint Software Backtested Returns
Guotai Epoint Software holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0968, which attests that the entity had a -0.0968% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guotai Epoint Software exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guotai Epoint's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.28, downside deviation of 3.42, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0788 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.22, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guotai Epoint's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guotai Epoint is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Guotai Epoint Software has a negative expected return of -0.41%. Please make sure to check out Guotai Epoint's downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Guotai Epoint Software performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.67 |
Good predictability
Guotai Epoint Software has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guotai Epoint time series from 5th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guotai Epoint Software price movement. The serial correlation of 0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Guotai Epoint price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.36 |
Guotai Epoint Software lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guotai Epoint stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guotai Epoint's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guotai Epoint returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guotai Epoint has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guotai Epoint regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guotai Epoint stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guotai Epoint stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guotai Epoint stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guotai Epoint Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guotai Epoint's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guotai Epoint stock have on its future price. Guotai Epoint autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guotai Epoint autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guotai Epoint stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guotai Epoint Software.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Guotai Stock
Guotai Epoint financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guotai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guotai with respect to the benefits of owning Guotai Epoint security.