Orient Sec (China) Market Value
| 600958 Stock | 10.66 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Orient |
Orient Sec 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Orient Sec's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Orient Sec.
| 12/24/2023 |
| 12/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Orient Sec on December 24, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Orient Sec Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Orient Sec over 360 days. Orient Sec is related to or competes with China Petroleum, PetroChina, China State, China Railway, China Railway, China Mobile, and Industrial. Orient Sec is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Orient Sec Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Orient Sec's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Orient Sec Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0956 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.5 |
Orient Sec Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Orient Sec's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Orient Sec's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Orient Sec historical prices to predict the future Orient Sec's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0926 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3937 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.108 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1131 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.58) |
Orient Sec Backtested Returns
Orient Sec appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Orient Sec maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Orient Sec, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Orient Sec's Semi Deviation of 2.39, risk adjusted performance of 0.0926, and Coefficient Of Variation of 853.59 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Orient Sec holds a performance score of 10. The company holds a Beta of -0.61, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Orient Sec are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Orient Sec is likely to outperform the market. Please check Orient Sec's downside deviation, information ratio, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether Orient Sec's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Orient Sec Co has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Orient Sec time series from 24th of December 2023 to 21st of June 2024 and 21st of June 2024 to 18th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Orient Sec price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Orient Sec price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.88 |
Orient Sec lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Orient Sec stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Orient Sec's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Orient Sec returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Orient Sec has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Orient Sec regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Orient Sec stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Orient Sec stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Orient Sec stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Orient Sec Lagged Returns
When evaluating Orient Sec's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Orient Sec stock have on its future price. Orient Sec autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Orient Sec autocorrelation shows the relationship between Orient Sec stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Orient Sec Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Orient Stock
Orient Sec financial ratios help investors to determine whether Orient Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Orient with respect to the benefits of owning Orient Sec security.