Is Triumph Stock a Good Investment?

Triumph Investment Advice

TGI

To provide specific investment advice or recommendations on Triumph Group stock, we recommend investors consider the following general factors when evaluating Triumph Group. This will help you to make an informed decision on whether to include Triumph in one of your diversified portfolios:

Examine Triumph's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
Research Triumph's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help Triumph navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
Consider the overall health of the Aerospace & Defense space and any emerging trends that could impact Triumph's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
Compare Triumph's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how Triumph is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
Check if Triumph pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
Review what financial analysts are saying about Triumph's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.

It's important to note that investing in Triumph Group stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if Triumph Group is a good investment.

Sell

Buy

Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Triumph and to analyze the firm potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Triumph Group is not overpriced, please validate all Triumph fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, working capital, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . Given that Triumph Group has a price to earning of (23.51) X, we advise you to double-check Triumph Group market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Market Performance	OK	Details
Volatility	Somewhat reliable	Details
Hype Condition	Under hyped	Details
Current Valuation	Overvalued	Details
Odds Of Distress	Below Average	Details
Economic Sensitivity	Responds to the market	Details
Investor Sentiment	Interested	Details
Analyst Consensus	Buy	Details
Financial Strenth (F Score)	Strong	Details
Financial Leverage	Not Rated	Details
Reporting Quality (M-Score)	Unlikely Manipulator	Details

Examine Triumph Stock

Researching Triumph's stock involves analyzing various aspects of the company and its industry to make an informed investment decision. The key areas to focus on are fundamentals, business model and competitive advantage. It is also important to analyze trends in revenue, net income, and cash flow, as well as key financial ratios, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and debt-to-equity (D/E). About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2. Triumph Group recorded a loss per share of 0.16. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 15th of July 2011.

To determine if Triumph is a good investment, evaluating the company's potential for future growth is also very important. This may include expanding into new markets, launching new products or services, or improving operational efficiency. Companies with strong growth prospects can be more attractive investments. This aspect of the research should be conducted in the context of the overall market and industry in which the company operates and should include an analysis of growth potential, competitive landscape, and any regulatory or economic factors that could impact the business. Some of the essential points regarding Triumph's research are outlined below:

	Triumph Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
	Triumph Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
	The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.19 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (34.47 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 386.88 M.
	Triumph Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
	Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
	Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Keating Neal J of 2500 shares of Triumph at 14.12 subject to Rule 16b-3

Triumph Quarterly Cost Of Revenue

192.89 Million

Triumph uses earnings reports to provide investors with an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Therefore, it is also crucial when considering investing in Triumph Group. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Triumph's previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.

	7th of February 2024 Upcoming Quarterly Report	View
	15th of May 2024 Next Financial Report	View
	31st of December 2023 Next Fiscal Quarter End	View
	15th of May 2024 Next Fiscal Year End	View
	30th of September 2023 Last Quarter Report	View
	31st of March 2023 Last Financial Announcement	View

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Triumph's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate. Below are the table of largest EPS Surprises Triumph's investors have experienced.

Reported	Fiscal Date	Estimated EPS	Reported EPS	Surprise
2024-08-07	2024-06-30	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	20
2021-11-09	2021-09-30	0.09	0.1	0.01	11
2023-11-07	2023-09-30	-0.01	0.01	0.02	200
2022-08-03	2022-06-30	0.1	0.12	0.02	20
2021-05-20	2021-03-31	0.08	0.1	0.02	25
2020-08-04	2020-06-30	-0.22	-0.19	0.03	13
2006-01-27	2005-12-31	0.26	0.29	0.03	11
2003-10-30	2003-09-30	0.28	0.25	-0.03	10

Know Triumph's Top Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Triumph is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph Group backward and forwards among themselves. Triumph's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Triumph's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.

		Shares
Fisher Asset Management, Llc	2024-09-30	1.6 M
Nuveen Asset Management, Llc	2024-06-30	1.4 M
Point72 Asset Management, L.p.	2024-09-30	1.1 M
Assenagon Asset Management Sa	2024-09-30	1 M
Healthcare Of Ontario Pension Plan Trust Fund	2024-09-30	998.9 K
Penn Capital Management Company Llc	2024-09-30	939.4 K
Royce & Associates, Lp	2024-09-30	926.9 K
Amvescap Plc.	2024-06-30	758.7 K
Ameriprise Financial Inc	2024-06-30	744.5 K
Blackrock Inc	2024-06-30	11.9 M
Vanguard Group Inc	2024-09-30	6.9 M

Note, although Triumph's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Triumph's market capitalization trends

The company currently falls under 'Mid-Cap' category with a total capitalization of 1.45 B.

Market Cap

931.31 Million

Triumph's profitablity analysis

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets	0.46	0.48
Return On Capital Employed	0.07	0.09
Return On Assets	0.30	0.32
Return On Equity	(4.91)	(4.66)

The company has Net Profit Margin of 0.44 %, which implies that it may need a different competitive strategy as even a very small decline in it revenue may erase profits and result in a net loss. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 0.12 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated $0.12 of operating income.

Determining Triumph's profitability involves analyzing its financial statements and using various financial metrics to determine if Triumph is a good buy. For example, gross profit margin measures Triumph's profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold, while net profit margin measures profitability after accounting for all expenses. Other important metrics include return on assets, return on equity, and free cash flow. By reviewing multiple sources and metrics, you can gain a complete picture of Triumph's profitability and make more informed investment decisions.

Evaluate Triumph's management efficiency

Triumph Group has Return on Asset of 0.0498 % which means that on every $100 spent on assets, it made $0.0498 of profit. This is way below average. Triumph's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Triumph manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. As of now, Triumph's Return On Tangible Assets are increasing as compared to previous years. The Triumph's current Return On Capital Employed is estimated to increase to 0.09, while Return On Equity is forecasted to increase to (4.66). As of now, Triumph's Total Current Assets are decreasing as compared to previous years. The Triumph's current Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to increase to 0.48, while Other Current Assets are projected to decrease to under 15.8 M.

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share	(1.41)	(1.34)
Tangible Book Value Per Share	(9.17)	(9.63)
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA	14.27	14.99
Price Book Value Ratio	(10.40)	(9.88)
Enterprise Value Multiple	14.27	14.99
Price Fair Value	(10.40)	(9.88)
Enterprise Value	212.6 M	167.9 M

At Triumph Group, effective management practices are pivotal to sustaining long-term profitability. We delve into financial metrics and market conditions to provide a comprehensive analysis of the stock's prospects.

Beta

2.485

Basic technical analysis of Triumph Stock

As of the 28th of November, Triumph has the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1099, semi deviation of 2.39, and Coefficient Of Variation of 753.44. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Triumph Group, as well as the relationship between them.

Triumph's insider trading activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Triumph insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Triumph's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Triumph insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

		Keating Neal J a day ago Acquisition by Keating Neal J of 2500 shares of Triumph at 14.12 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Thomas Quigley few days ago Acquisition by Thomas Quigley of 1906 shares of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Allen Patrick E over a week ago Acquisition by Allen Patrick E of 10324 shares of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Allen Patrick E over a month ago Acquisition by Allen Patrick E of 10324 shares of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Thomas Quigley over a month ago Disposition of 1608 shares by Thomas Quigley of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Kai Kasiguran over two months ago Disposition of 548 shares by Kai Kasiguran of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		James McCabe over three months ago Disposition of 7393 shares by James McCabe of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Thomas Quigley over three months ago Disposition of 1322 shares by Thomas Quigley of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Thomas Quigley over three months ago Acquisition by Thomas Quigley of 1608 shares of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Daniel Crowley over three months ago Disposition of 26213 shares by Daniel Crowley of Triumph subject to Rule 16b-3
		Egnotovich Cynthia M over three months ago Acquisition by Egnotovich Cynthia M of 10000 shares of Triumph at 15.1351 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Keating Neal J over three months ago Acquisition by Keating Neal J of 7500 shares of Triumph at 14.13 subject to Rule 16b-3

Triumph's Outstanding Corporate Bonds

Triumph issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Triumph Group uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Triumph bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Triumph Group has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

	Dana 575 percent Corp Bond US235822AB96	View
	Volcan Compania Minera Corp Bond USP98047AC08	View
	Boeing Co 2196 Corp Bond US097023DG73	View
	TRTN 315 15 JUN 31 Corp Bond US89680YAC93	View
	TRTN 205 15 APR 26 Corp Bond US89680YAA38	View
	HSBC Holdings PLC Corp Bond US404280DR76	View
	MPLX LP 52 Corp Bond US55336VAL45	View
	International Game Technology Corp Bond US460599AD57	View

View All Triumph Corporate Bonds

Understand Triumph's technical and predictive indicators

Using predictive indicators to make investment decisions involves analyzing Triumph's various financial and market-based factors to help forecast future trends and identify investment opportunities. Select the indicators that are most relevant to your investment strategy. Each indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it's essential to combine multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce the risk of making poor decisions based on limited data.

	Risk Adjusted Performance	0.1099
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	0.421
	Mean Deviation	2.61
	Semi Deviation	2.39
	Downside Deviation	2.75
	Coefficient Of Variation	753.44
	Standard Deviation	4.21
	Variance	17.72
	Information Ratio	0.1029
	Jensen Alpha	0.3947
	Total Risk Alpha	(0.09)
	Sortino Ratio	0.1579
	Treynor Ratio	0.411
	Maximum Drawdown	26.21
	Value At Risk	(4.53)
	Potential Upside	6.23
	Downside Variance	7.54
	Semi Variance	5.73
	Expected Short fall	(3.15)
	Skewness	2.5
	Kurtosis	10.0

	Risk Adjusted Performance	0.1099
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	0.421
	Mean Deviation	2.61
	Semi Deviation	2.39
	Downside Deviation	2.75
	Coefficient Of Variation	753.44
	Standard Deviation	4.21
	Variance	17.72
	Information Ratio	0.1029
	Jensen Alpha	0.3947
	Total Risk Alpha	(0.09)
	Sortino Ratio	0.1579
	Treynor Ratio	0.411
	Maximum Drawdown	26.21
	Value At Risk	(4.53)
	Potential Upside	6.23
	Downside Variance	7.54
	Semi Variance	5.73
	Expected Short fall	(3.15)
	Skewness	2.5
	Kurtosis	10.0

Consider Triumph's intraday indicators

Triumph intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Triumph stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0483
	Daily Balance Of Power	(0.65)
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.97
	Day Median Price	19.17
	Day Typical Price	19.04
	Market Facilitation Index	0.95
	Price Action Indicator	(0.71)
	Period Momentum Indicator	(0.62)

Triumph Corporate Filings

8K	12th of November 2024 Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about	View Verify
13A	8th of November 2024 An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G	View Verify
13A	7th of November 2024 The form used by investors holding more than 5% of a company's stock, to report their beneficial ownership pursuant to Rule 13d-1 or Rule 13d-2 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934	View Verify
F4	3rd of September 2024 The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities	View Verify

Triumph time-series forecasting models is one of many Triumph's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Triumph's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Triumph Stock media impact

Far too much social signal, news, headlines, and media speculation about Triumph that are available to investors today. That information is available publicly through Triumph media outlets and privately through word of mouth or via Triumph internal channels. However, regardless of the origin, that massive amount of Triumph data is challenging to quantify into actionable patterns, especially for investors that are not very sophisticated with ever-evolving tools and techniques used in the investment management field.

A primary focus of Triumph news analysis is to determine if its current price reflects all relevant headlines and social signals impacting the current market conditions. A news analyst typically looks at the history of Triumph relative headlines and hype rather than examining external drivers such as technical or fundamental data. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned thinking related to Triumph's headlines and news coverage data. This data is often completely overlooked or insufficiently analyzed for actionable insights to drive Triumph alpha.

Triumph Sentiment by Major News Outlets

Investor sentiment, mood or attitude towards Triumph can have a significant impact on its stock price or the market as a whole. This sentiment can be positive or negative, and various factors, such as economic indicators, news events, or market trends, can influence it. When investor sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to buy stocks, increasing demand and increasing the stock price. Positive investor sentiment can be driven by good news about the company or the broader market, such as solid earnings reports or positive economic data.

Note that negative investor sentiment can cause investors to sell stocks, leading to a decrease in demand and a drop in the stock price. Negative sentiment can be driven by factors such as poor earnings reports, negative news about the company or industry, or broader economic concerns. It's important to note that investor sentiment is just one of many factors that can affect stock prices. Other factors, such as company performance, industry trends, and global economic conditions, can also play a significant role in determining the value of a stock.

Triumph Corporate Directors

William Mansfield	Lead Independent Director	Profile
Larry Spencer	Independent Director	Profile
Daniel Garton	Independent Director	Profile
Paul Bourgon	Independent Director	Profile

When determining whether Triumph Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Triumph's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Triumph Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Triumph Group Stock: