Should you trade your Wisekey (USA Stocks:WKEY) position after the current rise?

Volatility is the price you pay for performance. This saying rings particularly true for Wisekey International Holding, a player in the technology sector known for its roller-coaster stock movements. Recently, however, there are signs that WKEY might be finding its footing. With a Day Median Price of $5.84 and a Valuation Real Value of $11.38, the stock seems to be trading below its perceived worth, suggesting potential for upward movement. Analysts have given it a Buy consensus, supported by a target price estimated at $30, indicating confidence in its future prospects. Yet, the Daily Balance Of Power at 0.8976 hints at a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, reflecting the ongoing volatility. As investors watch closely, the question remains whether WKEY is on the verge of a more stable trajectory or if the turbulence will continue. Over the next 60 days, Wisekey International is projected to deliver returns 15.6 times greater than the market average. However, it also exhibits 15.6 times more volatility compared to its market benchmark. The stock offers about 0.17 units of return per unit of risk, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average provides around 0.11. Given that many conservative investors remain cautious about market risks, it's wise to analyze Wisekey International's volatility. We'll assess whether this volatility is likely to persist into January.
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

Wisekey International Holding has $9.77 million in liabilities and a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.17, indicating it might not be leveraging borrowing as much as it could. With a current ratio of 2.97, the company appears to have sufficient liquidity to meet its financial obligations. When evaluating Wisekey's debt, it's important to consider its cash and equity positions. The company has a performance score of 13 out of 100 and a market beta of -3.17, suggesting it carries significant risk compared to the market. This means that while Wisekey's returns may decrease more than the market's during upswings, it could potentially outperform during downturns. To assess future returns, consider using metrics like the Sortino ratio, semi-variance, and their relationship with the rate of daily change.

Main Points

With Wisekey International's (WKEY) Coefficient of Variation at a high 626.42, the stock exhibits significant volatility, making it a potentially risky investment for those seeking stability. However, the Jensen Alpha of 3.17 suggests a possibility of outperforming the market, which might appeal to investors willing to embrace some risk for potential gains.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Wisekey International or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Wisekey International may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Wisekey's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Wisekey International and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Wisekey International fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Wisekey International's Liquidity

Wisekey International financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Wisekey International Holding ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Wisekey International financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Wisekey International's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Wisekey International's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Wisekey International's total debt and its cash.

Wisekey International Gross Profit

Wisekey International Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Wisekey International previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Wisekey International Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Wisekey International's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Wisekey International Volatility Drivers

Wisekey International unsystematic risk is unique to Wisekey International and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Wisekey International you can also buy SemiLEDS. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the information technology sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Wisekey International important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Wisekey International income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Wisekey volatility.
0.090.920.53-0.10.40.020.850.8-0.440.540.54-0.870.860.850.810.660.460.870.8-0.1-0.52
0.090.45-0.420.31-0.49-0.390.340.37-0.170.320.32-0.150.130.15-0.080.020.17-0.18-0.40.310.09
0.920.450.26-0.080.13-0.030.820.8-0.470.510.51-0.770.760.760.640.580.470.680.54-0.08-0.34
0.53-0.420.26-0.060.990.170.510.49-0.210.290.29-0.560.580.560.590.310.190.60.61-0.06-0.8
-0.10.31-0.08-0.06-0.13-0.940.140.11-0.340.680.68-0.220.230.250.29-0.32-0.150.040.011.0-0.28
0.4-0.490.130.99-0.130.240.380.37-0.140.160.16-0.420.450.420.470.220.120.480.52-0.13-0.72
0.02-0.39-0.030.17-0.940.24-0.27-0.250.4-0.67-0.670.25-0.24-0.27-0.30.18-0.08-0.07-0.03-0.940.13
0.850.340.820.510.140.38-0.270.99-0.390.640.64-0.850.840.840.760.640.610.720.590.14-0.58
0.80.370.80.490.110.37-0.250.99-0.350.580.58-0.790.770.780.690.610.620.660.520.11-0.54
-0.44-0.17-0.47-0.21-0.34-0.140.4-0.39-0.35-0.69-0.690.59-0.57-0.6-0.53-0.24-0.33-0.47-0.38-0.340.14
0.540.320.510.290.680.16-0.670.640.58-0.691.0-0.840.840.850.750.360.210.590.450.67-0.56
0.540.320.510.290.680.16-0.670.640.58-0.691.0-0.840.840.850.750.360.210.590.450.67-0.56
-0.87-0.15-0.77-0.56-0.22-0.420.25-0.85-0.790.59-0.84-0.84-1.0-1.0-0.91-0.71-0.46-0.87-0.72-0.220.71
0.860.130.760.580.230.45-0.240.840.77-0.570.840.84-1.01.00.910.690.430.870.730.23-0.74
0.850.150.760.560.250.42-0.270.840.78-0.60.850.85-1.01.00.910.690.450.860.720.25-0.71
0.81-0.080.640.590.290.47-0.30.760.69-0.530.750.75-0.910.910.910.540.380.960.890.29-0.72
0.660.020.580.31-0.320.220.180.640.61-0.240.360.36-0.710.690.690.540.730.630.47-0.32-0.35
0.460.170.470.19-0.150.12-0.080.610.62-0.330.210.21-0.460.430.450.380.730.420.27-0.15-0.16
0.87-0.180.680.60.040.48-0.070.720.66-0.470.590.59-0.870.870.860.960.630.420.950.04-0.65
0.8-0.40.540.610.010.52-0.030.590.52-0.380.450.45-0.720.730.720.890.470.270.950.0-0.55
-0.10.31-0.08-0.061.0-0.13-0.940.140.11-0.340.670.67-0.220.230.250.29-0.32-0.150.040.0-0.28
-0.520.09-0.34-0.8-0.28-0.720.13-0.58-0.540.14-0.56-0.560.71-0.74-0.71-0.72-0.35-0.16-0.65-0.55-0.28
Click cells to compare fundamentals

What is driving Wisekey International Investor Appetite?

The current price rise of Wisekey International may raise some interest from investors as it is trading at a share price of 7.84 on 71,782,488 in trading volume. The company management teams may have good odds in positioning the company resources to exploit market volatility in January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 11.38. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Wisekey International Holding partners.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Payables Turnover2.252.572.091.7
Days Of Inventory On Hand75.11204.58118.0378.19
As the saying goes, "Volatility is the price you pay for performance." Wisekey International Holding (WKEY) seems to be on a quest for stability, but the journey is far from over. With a beta of 1.85, the stock is still more volatile than the market, indicating that investors should brace for some bumps along the way. Despite a working capital of $11.18 million, the company's probability of bankruptcy stands alarmingly high at 96.00%, casting a shadow over its financial health. While the current ratio of 3.03X suggests a solid liquidity position, the market's confidence remains shaky, as reflected in its market capitalization of $16.31 million..

Our perspective of the current Wisekey International rise

Wisekey International Holding is currently on an interesting upward trajectory. A notable metric to observe is its semi-variance, which has dropped to 9.11, indicating reduced volatility and suggesting more stable price movements. This could make Wisekey an attractive choice for investors seeking to benefit from its rise while managing risk. As of December 13, 2024, Wisekey International shows a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.90), a downside deviation of 4.1, and a mean deviation of 6.63.
These figures, alongside fundamental indicators, provide a comprehensive view of the stock's technical drivers and their interconnections. This might be a good time to consider adding Wisekey to your portfolio.In conclusion, while Wisekey International's stock has experienced a remarkable surge of over 139%, potential investors should weigh this against the broader market context and future projections. The stock's current valuation, with a real value of 11.38, suggests there might be room for further growth, especially considering the analyst consensus leans towards a "Buy" recommendation. However, it's crucial to remain cautious, as the possible downside price of 0.0784 indicates potential volatility. With the highest estimated target price reaching 33.3, there is optimism for continued upward momentum, but investors should stay informed and consider their risk tolerance before making any decisions..

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Editorial Staff

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