Do you have a personal attachment to Match?

As we step into February, investors are buzzing about Match Group, a prominent player in the online dating scene. With its fiscal year wrapping up in December, the company is under the spotlight as analysts weigh in on its future prospects. Currently trading on NASDAQ, Match Group is categorized under Communication Services, specifically within Interactive Media & Services. Analysts have shown a positive outlook, with nine strong buy recommendations and an overall consensus rating of 'Buy.' The stock's valuation market value stands at $35.1, slightly below its real value of $35.59, suggesting a potential for growth. However, with a possible downside price of $32.94, investors should weigh the risks alongside the potential rewards. As the market continues to evolve, Match Group's performance in February will be closely watched by those eager to see if it can capitalize on its current momentum. We concentrate on examining Match Group's (NASDAQ: MTCH) stock price trends and how they relate to various microeconomic factors. By using predictive analytics, we create daily price indicators for Match Group and assess them against relevant influences. Given the current economic climate, Match might present unexpected developments for investors in the coming month. We'll explore why recent price movements hint at a potential rebound in February.
Published over three weeks ago
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Reviewed by Vlad Skutelnik

Match Group currently holds a "Buy" rating from 27 analysts. You can use the trade recommendations module to verify and explore the latest advice from analysts assessing the company's growth potential, utilizing all available fundamental, technical, and market data. The company has a Profit Margin of 0.18%, indicating that even a slight drop in revenue could lead to a net loss, as this margin is significantly below average. Additionally, its Operating Margin stands at 0.27%, meaning that for every $100 in sales, the company earns just $0.27 in operating income.

Main Ideas

With Match Group's stock trading at a Day Typical Price of $35.06 and a robust Daily Balance Of Power of 1, investors might see potential for growth, but the negative Jensen Alpha of -0.09 suggests caution as it indicates the stock has underperformed compared to its expected return.
The successful prediction of Match stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Match Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Match based on Match hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Match's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Match's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Match expected Price

Match technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Match technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Match trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

Match Gross Profit

Match Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Match previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Match Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Match's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Is Match valued properly by the market?

The small plunge in market price for the last few months may encourage traders to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 35.10 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company directors and management did not add much value to Match Group investors in December. However, diversifying your holdings with Match or similar stocks can still protect your portfolio during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 3.17. The above-average risk is mostly attributed to market volatility and speculations regarding some of the upcoming earning calls from Match Group partners.

Current Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Match's Current Deferred Revenue is increasing with slightly volatile movements from year to year. Current Deferred Revenue is predicted to flatten to about 215.1 M. Current Deferred Revenue usually refers to revenue that has been collected but not yet earned, typically from prepaid service contracts or subscriptions. This amount is considered a liability until the service is provided or the subscription period ends. As of now, Match's Current Deferred Revenue is increasing as compared to previous years.
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2018360.01 Million
2019397.49 Million
2020239.09 Million
2021262.13 Million
2022252.72 Million
2023211.28 Million
2024242.97 Million
2025215.13 Million
Timing is everything, especially when it comes to investing. Match Group, a key player in the interactive media and services sector, is generating buzz as February approaches. With a robust gross profit of $2.52 billion and a solid earnings per share of 2.23, the company shows promising financial health. However, potential investors should be cautious of its high price-to-earnings ratio of 96.07X, which suggests the stock might be overvalued. While the company's market capitalization stands at $8.79 billion, the probability of bankruptcy at 49.21% is a red flag that cannot be ignored. As Match Group navigates these challenges, investors should weigh the potential upside of 3.32 against the inherent risks.

Will Match pull back in February 2025?

Match Group's recent risk-adjusted performance, sitting at -0.01, hints at potential weaknesses in its stock price. This figure suggests that the returns aren't sufficiently compensating for the risks investors are taking, which might signal another downturn. As we approach February 2025, investors should remain vigilant and consider the chance of a pullback, especially if broader market conditions or company-specific issues continue. Monitoring upcoming earnings reports and market trends will be essential for those holding or contemplating an investment in Match Group. As of January 28th, Match Group shows a risk-adjusted performance of -0.01, a mean deviation of 1.78, and a standard deviation of 3.0. The technical analysis model allows you to explore the current technical drivers and their interconnections with fundamental indicators.

Our Takeaway on Match Investment

When is the right time to buy or sell Match Group? Buying stocks such as Match isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities, deliver winning trades and diversify portfolios on a daily basis.
Taking everything into account, as of the 28th of January 2025, our research shows that Match is a rather very steady investment opportunity with a very low probability of distress in the next two years. From a slightly different view, the entity currently appears to be fairly valued. Our up-to-date 90 days buy-sell recommendation on the firm is Hold.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Match Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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