What is January outlook for MOGU (USA Stocks:MOGU)?

When it rains, it pours, and MOGU Inc's financial leverage paints a challenging picture for investors eyeing January. With a net income from continuing operations showing a loss of 67 million, the company is navigating through turbulent waters. Despite having a substantial cash reserve of 358.8 million, the capital expenditures of 94.2 million indicate significant outflows, which could strain liquidity if revenue streams don't improve. The total current liabilities stand at 321.8 million, overshadowing the cash and short-term investments of 420.1 million, suggesting a tightrope walk in managing short-term obligations. Investors should weigh these factors carefully, as the company's ability to leverage its assets effectively will be crucial in determining its financial health moving forward. MOGU Inc is set to release its earnings tomorrow. Currently, the company's net debt to EBITDA ratio remains stable compared to last year. Looking ahead to 2024, the current ratio is expected to rise to 2.71, while the price-to-sales ratio might decrease to 0.70. While some investors are overly focused on the broader retail sector, considering MOGU Inc as a potential investment could be worthwhile.
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

For those considering leveraging their position in MOGU Inc, it's important to weigh the company's financial health and risk factors. Despite MOGU Inc's retained earnings showing a substantial loss of 8.9B, the company exhibits a low Sortino Ratio of 0.0443, indicating limited upside potential relative to downside risk, which could make leveraged trades particularly risky.

Main Points

MOGU Inc has liabilities totaling $2.66 million and a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.01, indicating minimal reliance on borrowing. This could mean the company isn't fully leveraging potential debt advantages. With a current ratio of 2.19, MOGU appears well-positioned to meet its short-term financial obligations. It's important to evaluate the company's debt in conjunction with its cash reserves and equity. However, MOGU's financial performance raises concerns, with a Profit Margin of -0.37%, suggesting issues with pricing strategies or cost management. This figure is notably below industry norms. Additionally, the Operating Margin stands at -0.35%, meaning for every $100 in sales, the company incurs a $0.35 operating loss.
MOGU financial leverage ratio helps determine the effect of debt on the overall profitability of the company. It measures the total debt position of MOGU, including all of MOGU's outstanding debt obligations, and compares it with the equity. In simple terms, the high financial leverage means the cost of production, together with running the business day-to-day, is high, whereas, lower financial leverage implies lower fixed cost investment in the business and generally considered by investors to be a good sign. So if creditors own a majority of MOGU assets, the company is considered highly leveraged. Understanding the composition and structure of overall MOGU debt and outstanding corporate bonds gives a good idea of how risky the capital structure of a business is and if it is worth investing in it. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

Understanding MOGU Total Liabilities

MOGU Inc liabilities are broken down into two parts on the balance sheet. These are short-term (or current) obligations and long-term debt. MOGU Inc has to fulfill its short-term liabilities in this reporting year and should be no more than 12 months old. Long-term debt, on the other hand, is anything beyond the 12-month payment timeframe. Common short-term liabilities found on MOGU balance sheet include debt obligations and money owed to different MOGU vendors, workers, and loan providers. Below is the chart of MOGU short long-term liabilities accounts currently reported on its balance sheet.
You can use MOGU Inc financial leverage analysis tool to get a better grip on understanding its financial position

How important is MOGU's Liquidity

MOGU financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance MOGU Inc ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. MOGU financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to MOGU's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of MOGU's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between MOGU's total debt and its cash.

What is driving MOGU Investor Appetite?

The newest gain in MOGU Inc short term price appreciation may encourage private investors to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 2.21 on 762.00 in trading volume. The company management teams have successfully maneuvered the firm at convenient times to take advantage of all market conditions in November. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 5.35. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the MOGU Inc partners.

Liabilities Breakdown

Total Current Liabilities404.1 Million
Liabilities And Stockholders Equity891.44 Million
Non Current Liabilities Total1.97 Million
Non Current Liabilities Other972,325
Cash is king, especially when evaluating a company's financial health. MOGU Inc, a player in the Internet Retail sector, presents a mixed financial outlook for January. With a current ratio of 2.23X, the company demonstrates a solid ability to cover its short-term liabilities, which total 321.8 million. However, investors should be cautious of the significant losses reflected in its operating income of 79.2 million. Despite a market capitalization of just 16.75 million, MOGU Inc's cash and short-term investments stand at a robust 420.1 million, providing a buffer against its high probability of bankruptcy at 95.41%..

Will MOGU growth be viable after the gain?

MOGU Inc's recent value at risk (VaR) of -6.7 signals a significant risk level, which might concern potential investors evaluating the company's growth potential. This figure suggests that MOGU's stock could face considerable price swings, casting doubt on the stability of its recent gains. Investors should carefully assess this risk in light of the company's growth strategies and market standing to decide if the potential rewards outweigh the volatility. While growth prospects can be enticing, understanding the associated risks is essential for informed decision-making.
MOGU Inc also shows above-average semi-deviation, indicating notable volatility. This can affect stock prices, especially in bear markets, prompting investors to adjust their portfolios by diversifying as prices drop.Considering MOGU Inc's recent uptick, it's essential to weigh the potential for further gains against the broader market context and company fundamentals. With an analyst consensus rating of "Strong Buy" and a highest estimated target price of 3.36, there is optimism about the stock's future trajectory. However, investors should remain cautious and consider the valuation market value of 2.21 as a benchmark for assessing current pricing. While the stock's momentum is encouraging, it's crucial to stay informed and agile, ready to adjust strategies as new information emerges..

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Editorial Staff

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