Watsco Inc Stock Price Prediction
| WSO Stock | USD 498.93 0.39 0.08% |
Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.2892 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.8254 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.5012 | Wall Street Target Price 485.7382 |
Using Watsco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Watsco Inc from the perspective of Watsco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Watsco using Watsco's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Watsco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Watsco's stock price.
Watsco Short Interest
An investor who is long Watsco may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Watsco and may potentially protect profits, hedge Watsco with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 488.5147 | Short Percent 0.0752 | Short Ratio 11.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.4 M | 50 Day MA 487.5796 |
Watsco Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Watsco's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Watsco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Watsco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Watsco Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Watsco's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Watsco.
Watsco Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Watsco's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Watsco Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Watsco's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Watsco stock will not fluctuate a lot when Watsco's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Watsco to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Watsco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Watsco after-hype prediction price | USD 503.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Watsco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Watsco Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Watsco trading at USD 498.93, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Watsco's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Watsco Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Watsco |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Watsco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Watsco After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Watsco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Watsco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Watsco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Watsco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Watsco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Watsco's historical news coverage. Watsco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 501.19 and 504.89, respectively. We have considered Watsco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Watsco is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Watsco Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Watsco Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Watsco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Watsco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Watsco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.84 | 1.51 | 0.09 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
498.93 | 503.04 | 0.32 |
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Watsco Hype Timeline
On the 26th of February Watsco Inc is traded for 498.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Watsco is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 503.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 17.12%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Watsco is about 296.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 499.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 635.74 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.04 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Watsco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Watsco Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Watsco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Watsco's future price movements. Getting to know how Watsco's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Watsco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FAST | Fastenal Company | (0.66) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.51 | (1.79) | 4.71 | |
| SITE | SiteOne Landscape Supply | (0.29) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.78 | (3.42) | 9.51 | |
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | 0.21 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.71 | (2.80) | 13.86 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | 5.74 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.18 | (1.80) | 7.86 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.38 | (2.37) | 10.56 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | (0.52) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.33 | (2.30) | 7.60 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | 0.64 | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.31 | (2.35) | 10.46 | |
| CNM | Core Main | 0.80 | 11 per month | 1.28 | 0.08 | 3.06 | (2.26) | 18.90 | |
| DXPE | DXP Enterprises | (0.20) | 12 per month | 2.45 | 0.15 | 4.38 | (3.85) | 15.13 |
Watsco Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Watsco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Watsco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Watsco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Watsco Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Watsco stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Watsco Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Watsco based on analysis of Watsco hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Watsco's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Watsco's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0375 | 0.0244 | 0.0194 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.22 | 2.15 | 2.45 |
Story Coverage note for Watsco
The number of cover stories for Watsco depends on current market conditions and Watsco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Watsco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Watsco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Watsco Short Properties
Watsco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Watsco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Watsco Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Watsco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Watsco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.5 M |
Check out Watsco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Watsco. If investors know Watsco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Watsco listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | Dividend Share 10.55 | Earnings Share 12.36 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Watsco Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Watsco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Watsco's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Watsco's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Watsco's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Watsco's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Watsco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Watsco is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Watsco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.