Vermilion Energy Stock Price Prediction
| VET Stock | USD 8.28 0.06 0.73% |
Momentum 23
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.45 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.22 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.94 | Wall Street Target Price 13.3 |
Using Vermilion Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vermilion Energy from the perspective of Vermilion Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vermilion Energy using Vermilion Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vermilion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vermilion Energy's stock price.
Vermilion Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Vermilion Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vermilion Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vermilion Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.8525 | Short Percent 0.0392 | Short Ratio 3.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 9.6926 |
Vermilion Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vermilion Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vermilion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vermilion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vermilion Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vermilion Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vermilion Energy.
Vermilion Energy Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
Vermilion Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vermilion Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vermilion Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vermilion Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vermilion Energy's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vermilion Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vermilion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vermilion Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 8.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vermilion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vermilion Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0594% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Vermilion Energy trading at USD 8.28, that is roughly USD 0.004916 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vermilion Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vermilion Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Vermilion |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vermilion Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vermilion Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vermilion Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vermilion Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vermilion Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vermilion Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vermilion Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vermilion Energy's historical news coverage. Vermilion Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.55 and 10.87, respectively. We have considered Vermilion Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vermilion Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vermilion Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vermilion Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vermilion Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vermilion Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vermilion Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.28 | 8.21 | 0.12 |
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Vermilion Energy Hype Timeline
On the 25th of March Vermilion Energy is traded for 8.28. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Vermilion is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Vermilion Energy is about 3712.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.29. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.66. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vermilion Energy recorded a loss per share of 3.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2024. The firm had 0:1 split on the December 4, 2009. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Vermilion Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vermilion Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vermilion Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vermilion Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Vermilion Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vermilion Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTE | Baytex Energy Corp | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 4.96 | (4.69) | 13.19 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.40 | 6 per month | 2.87 | 0.08 | 5.08 | (3.37) | 23.14 | |
| CNQ | Canadian Natural Resources | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.04 | 2.38 | (2.88) | 8.73 | |
| OVV | Ovintiv | 0.10 | 9 per month | 2.61 | 0.08 | 3.95 | (3.77) | 13.37 | |
| CPG | CPG Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ROCC | Ranger Oil Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ERF | Enerplus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VTLE | Vital Energy | (0.55) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.93 | (6.93) | 18.53 | |
| AR | Antero Resources Corp | 0.71 | 10 per month | 2.47 | 0.17 | 4.25 | (3.44) | 16.13 | |
| SBOW | SilverBow Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.98 | 0.05 | 2.45 | (2.59) | 9.02 |
Vermilion Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vermilion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vermilion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vermilion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vermilion Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vermilion Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vermilion Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vermilion Energy based on analysis of Vermilion Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vermilion Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vermilion Energy's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0237 | 0.0341 | 0.0646 |
| Price To Sales Ratio | 1.36 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
Story Coverage note for Vermilion Energy
The number of cover stories for Vermilion Energy depends on current market conditions and Vermilion Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vermilion Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vermilion Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vermilion Energy Short Properties
Vermilion Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vermilion Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vermilion Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vermilion Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vermilion Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 161.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131.7 M |
Additional Tools for Vermilion Stock Analysis
When running Vermilion Energy's price analysis, check to measure Vermilion Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vermilion Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vermilion Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vermilion Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vermilion Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vermilion Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.