United Parcel Service Stock Price Prediction
| UPS Stock | USD 135.72 0.04 0.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.374 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.53 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.4858 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.7702 | Wall Street Target Price 149.2466 |
Using United Parcel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Parcel Service from the perspective of United Parcel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
United Parcel Service Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Parcel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Parcel Service. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Parcel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Parcel.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in United Parcel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying United because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
United Parcel after-hype prediction price | USD 136.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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United Parcel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Parcel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Parcel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Parcel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Parcel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Parcel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Parcel's historical news coverage. United Parcel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 134.76 and 137.50, respectively. We have considered United Parcel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Parcel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Parcel Service is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Parcel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Parcel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Parcel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Parcel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.37 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
135.72 | 136.13 | 0.30 |
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United Parcel Hype Timeline
On the 1st of December United Parcel Service is traded for 135.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.36. United is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 136.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 43.63%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.3%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on United Parcel is about 48.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 136.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 90.96 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.71 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 25.09 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.United Parcel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Parcel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Parcel's future price movements. Getting to know how United Parcel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Parcel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GXO | GXO Logistics | 2.10 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.09 | 2.56 | (2.59) | 17.49 | |
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 4.59 | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0 | 3.15 | (2.36) | 6.94 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 0.02 | 10 per month | 1.36 | (0.07) | 2.16 | (1.28) | 8.29 | |
| LSTR | Landstar System | 2.60 | 8 per month | 1.33 | (0.06) | 2.39 | (2.27) | 8.45 | |
| FWRD | Forward Air | 4.69 | 9 per month | 2.77 | 0.03 | 4.39 | (4.35) | 12.56 |
United Parcel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About United Parcel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of United Parcel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as United Parcel Service, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of United Parcel based on analysis of United Parcel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to United Parcel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to United Parcel's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0183 | 0.0338 | 0.0398 | 0.0418 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.93 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.97 |
Story Coverage note for United Parcel
The number of cover stories for United Parcel depends on current market conditions and United Parcel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Parcel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Parcel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Parcel Short Properties
United Parcel's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Parcel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Parcel Service often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Parcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Parcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 860 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.1 B |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Parcel's price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.