Simply Good Foods Stock Price Prediction
| SMPL Stock | USD 34.53 0.26 0.76% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9268 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1561 | Wall Street Target Price 40.9 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.4556 |
Using Simply Good hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Simply Good Foods from the perspective of Simply Good response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Simply Good using Simply Good's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Simply using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Simply Good's stock price.
Simply Good Short Interest
An investor who is long Simply Good may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Simply Good and may potentially protect profits, hedge Simply Good with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 35.8062 | Short Percent 0.0551 | Short Ratio 4.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 36.785 |
Simply Good Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Simply Good's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Simply. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Simply can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Simply Good Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Simply Good's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Simply Good.
Simply Good Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Simply Good's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Simply Good Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Simply Good's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Simply Good stock will not fluctuate a lot when Simply Good's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Simply Good to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Simply because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Simply Good after-hype prediction price | USD 34.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Simply contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Simply Good Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Simply Good trading at USD 34.53, that is roughly USD 0.0168 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Simply Good's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Simply Good Foods options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Simply Good After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Simply Good at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Simply Good or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Simply Good, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Simply Good Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Simply Good's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Simply Good's historical news coverage. Simply Good's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.48 and 36.44, respectively. We have considered Simply Good's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Simply Good is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Simply Good Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Simply Good Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Simply Good is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Simply Good backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Simply Good, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.98 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.53 | 34.46 | 0.20 |
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Simply Good Hype Timeline
Simply Good Foods is at this time traded for 34.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Simply is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 34.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Simply Good is about 2376.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.51. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.97. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Simply Good Foods has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2015. The firm had 26:16 split on the November 19, 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Simply Good Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Simply Good Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Simply Good's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Simply Good's future price movements. Getting to know how Simply Good's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Simply Good may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POST | Post Holdings | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.81 | (2.20) | 8.75 | |
| THS | Treehouse Foods | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.10 | (3.55) | 13.25 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | (2.31) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.51 | (3.30) | 9.17 | |
| CENTA | Central Garden Pet | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.53 | (3.57) | 11.78 | |
| HAIN | The Hain Celestial | (0.43) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 5.25 | (8.78) | 21.45 | |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony | 0.13 | 10 per month | 1.65 | 0.07 | 2.81 | (2.73) | 11.71 | |
| BRBR | Bellring Brands LLC | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.09 | (4.16) | 10.54 | |
| SENEB | Seneca Foods Corp | 1.85 | 3 per month | 1.63 | 0.21 | 7.46 | (4.83) | 18.61 | |
| NATR | Natures Sunshine Products | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.43 | (3.34) | 12.09 |
Simply Good Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Simply price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Simply using various technical indicators. When you analyze Simply charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Simply Good Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Simply Good stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Simply Good Foods, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Simply Good based on analysis of Simply Good hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Simply Good's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Simply Good's related companies. | 2018 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 42.61 | 41.32 | 30.15 | PTB Ratio | 2.18 | 1.83 | 0.33 |
Story Coverage note for Simply Good
The number of cover stories for Simply Good depends on current market conditions and Simply Good's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Simply Good is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Simply Good's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Simply Good Short Properties
Simply Good's future price predictability will typically decrease when Simply Good's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Simply Good Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Simply Good's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simply Good's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132.5 M |
Check out Simply Good Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simply Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | Earnings Share 1.41 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.106 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Simply Good Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simply Good is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simply Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.