Royal Gold Stock Price Prediction
| RGLD Stock | USD 154.20 0.66 0.43% |
Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.142 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.249 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.0386 | Wall Street Target Price 172 |
Using Royal Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Royal Gold from the perspective of Royal Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Royal Gold using Royal Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Royal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Royal Gold's stock price.
Royal Gold Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Royal Gold's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Royal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Royal Gold stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 139.5497 | Short Percent 0.037 | Short Ratio 3.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 143.3846 |
Royal Gold Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Royal Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Royal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Royal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Royal Gold. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Royal Gold's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Royal Gold.
Royal Gold Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Royal Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Royal Gold stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Royal Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Royal Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Royal Gold's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Royal Gold to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Royal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Royal Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 153.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Royal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Royal Gold will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Royal Gold trading at USD 154.2, that is roughly USD 0.0376 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Royal Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Royal Gold options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Royal |
Royal Gold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Royal Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Royal Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Royal Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Royal Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Royal Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Royal Gold's historical news coverage. Royal Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 152.15 and 155.53, respectively. We have considered Royal Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Royal Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Royal Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Royal Gold Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Royal Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Royal Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Royal Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.69 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
154.20 | 153.84 | 0.23 |
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Royal Gold Hype Timeline
Royal Gold is at this time traded for 154.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Royal is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 153.84. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 52.0%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Royal Gold is about 822.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 154.18. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Royal Gold was at this time reported as 39.48. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.41. Royal Gold recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of April 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Royal Gold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Royal Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Royal Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Royal Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Royal Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Royal Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals | (1.11) | 11 per month | 1.56 | 0.22 | 3.00 | (2.72) | 7.92 | |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | (0.64) | 11 per month | 1.76 | 0.23 | 3.84 | (2.45) | 9.76 | |
| SAND | Sandstorm Gold Ltd | 0.11 | 10 per month | 2.26 | 0.17 | 3.51 | (3.39) | 11.26 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.74 | 0.09 | 3.07 | (3.06) | 7.66 | |
| FNV | Franco Nevada | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.19 | 0.31 | 3.01 | (2.23) | 7.88 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | (0.79) | 9 per month | 2.43 | 0.13 | 4.98 | (4.46) | 11.48 | |
| SSRM | SSR Mining | 0.07 | 9 per month | 2.31 | 0.25 | 7.69 | (4.55) | 18.11 | |
| DRD | DRDGOLD Limited ADR | (0.41) | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.22 | 6.58 | (5.11) | 15.23 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 0.13 | 11 per month | 1.74 | 0.25 | 3.91 | (3.38) | 9.71 | |
| SA | Seabridge Gold | 0.22 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.77 | (5.52) | 20.98 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | 0.14 | 9 per month | 3.43 | 0.12 | 7.17 | (5.87) | 16.63 |
Royal Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Royal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Royal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Royal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Royal Gold Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Royal Gold stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Royal Gold, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Royal Gold based on analysis of Royal Gold hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Royal Gold's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Royal Gold's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0124 | 0.0122 | 0.00808 | Price To Sales Ratio | 12.25 | 12.04 | 11.43 |
Story Coverage note for Royal Gold
The number of cover stories for Royal Gold depends on current market conditions and Royal Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Royal Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Royal Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Royal Gold Short Properties
Royal Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Royal Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Royal Gold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Royal Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 195.5 M |
Complementary Tools for Royal Stock analysis
When running Royal Gold's price analysis, check to measure Royal Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royal Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Royal Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royal Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royal Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royal Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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