Old National Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| ONB Stock | USD 23.75 0.37 1.58% |
Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.063 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4557 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0728 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.641 | Wall Street Target Price 27.7222 |
Using Old National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old National Bancorp from the perspective of Old National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old National using Old National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old National's stock price.
Old National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Old National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 19.9179 | Short Percent 0.1553 | Short Ratio 11.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 36.3 M | 50 Day MA 22.8348 |
Old National Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old National.
Old National Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
Old National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old National's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Old National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Old because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Old National after-hype prediction price | USD 23.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old National Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Old National trading at USD 23.75, that is roughly USD 0.0117 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old National Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Old |
Old National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old National's historical news coverage. Old National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.18 and 25.34, respectively. We have considered Old National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.75 | 23.76 | 0.04 |
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Old National Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of March Old National Bancorp is traded for 23.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Old is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Old National is about 668.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.77. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.6 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 539.19 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.76 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Old National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Old National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old National's future price movements. Getting to know how Old National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBCP | Independent Bank | 0.63 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.18 | (2.69) | 7.02 | |
| FFBC | First Financial Bancorp | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.83 | (2.32) | 7.42 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.14 | (2.73) | 7.77 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 0.53 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.77 | (2.84) | 7.30 | |
| FFNW | First Financial Northwest | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.08 | (1.69) | 4.22 | |
| WABC | Westamerica Bancorporation | (0.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.04 | (2.25) | 7.23 | |
| WTFCP | Wintrust Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.24 | (0.12) | 0.80 | |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | (0.55) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.47 | (1.97) | 8.51 | |
| UMBF | UMB Financial | 1.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.26 | (2.71) | 7.64 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 0.86 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.06 | (3.40) | 8.52 |
Old National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Old National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Old National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Old National Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old National based on analysis of Old National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Old National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Old National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.031 | 0.0359 | 0.0367 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.69 | 2.86 | 2.79 |
Story Coverage note for Old National
The number of cover stories for Old National depends on current market conditions and Old National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Old National Short Properties
Old National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 311 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 B |
Complementary Tools for Old Stock analysis
When running Old National's price analysis, check to measure Old National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Old National is operating at the current time. Most of Old National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Old National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Old National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Old National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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