Northwest Natural Gas Stock Price Prediction
| NWN Stock | USD 41.76 0.02 0.05% |
Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.3383 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.8833 | Wall Street Target Price 46.6 |
Using Northwest Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northwest Natural Gas from the perspective of Northwest Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northwest Natural using Northwest Natural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northwest Natural's stock price.
Northwest Natural Implied Volatility | 0.89 |
Northwest Natural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northwest Natural Gas stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northwest Natural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northwest Natural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northwest Natural's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northwest Natural to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northwest because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Northwest Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 41.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northwest Natural Gas will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0556% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Northwest Natural trading at USD 41.76, that is roughly USD 0.0232 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northwest Natural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northwest Natural Gas options at the current volatility level of 0.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Northwest |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northwest Natural After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northwest Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northwest Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northwest Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northwest Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northwest Natural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northwest Natural's historical news coverage. Northwest Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.54 and 43.10, respectively. We have considered Northwest Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northwest Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northwest Natural Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northwest Natural Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northwest Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northwest Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northwest Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.27 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.76 | 41.82 | 0.07 |
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Northwest Natural Hype Timeline
On the 26th of February Northwest Natural Gas is traded for 41.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Northwest is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 41.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Northwest Natural is about 219.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.79. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.23. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Northwest Natural Gas has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.17. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of January 2025. The firm had 3:2 split on the 9th of September 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Northwest Natural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Northwest Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northwest Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northwest Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Northwest Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northwest Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 2.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.72 | (1.99) | 6.32 | |
| OGS | One Gas | 1.18 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 2.11 | (1.91) | 6.31 | |
| NIMC | NiSource Unit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UGIC | UGI Corp Unit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NI | NiSource | 0.83 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.11 | 1.93 | (2.01) | 6.69 | |
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | (0.90) | 9 per month | 1.50 | (0.01) | 2.02 | (2.45) | 6.85 | |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | 0.39 | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.21 | 2.35 | (2.20) | 20.32 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.11 | 2.68 | (2.63) | 8.95 | |
| ATO | Atmos Energy | 2.85 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.04 | 2.06 | (1.77) | 5.58 | |
| SPH | Suburban Propane Partners | 0.52 | 7 per month | 1.63 | 0.14 | 2.77 | (2.48) | 10.08 | |
| RGCO | RGC Resources | (0.56) | 8 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 3.15 | (3.59) | 10.78 |
Northwest Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Northwest Natural Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Northwest Natural stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northwest Natural Gas, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northwest Natural based on analysis of Northwest Natural hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northwest Natural's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northwest Natural's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0389 | 0.046 | 0.0528 | 0.0459 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.1 | 1.12 |
Story Coverage note for Northwest Natural
The number of cover stories for Northwest Natural depends on current market conditions and Northwest Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northwest Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northwest Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northwest Natural Short Properties
Northwest Natural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northwest Natural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northwest Natural Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northwest Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.9 M |
Check out Northwest Natural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Natural. If investors know Northwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northwest Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 1.95 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Northwest Natural Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northwest Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northwest Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northwest Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northwest Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northwest Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northwest Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northwest Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.