Noah Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| NOAH Stock | USD 11.85 0.03 0.25% |
Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.3632 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.3979 | Wall Street Target Price 13.319 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Using Noah Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Noah Holdings from the perspective of Noah Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Noah Holdings using Noah Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Noah using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Noah Holdings' stock price.
Noah Holdings Implied Volatility | 1.44 |
Noah Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Noah Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Noah Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Noah Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Noah Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Noah Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Noah because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Noah Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 11.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Noah contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Noah Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.09% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Noah Holdings trading at USD 11.85, that is roughly USD 0.0107 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Noah Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Noah Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Noah |
Noah Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Noah Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Noah Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Noah Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Noah Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Noah Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Noah Holdings' historical news coverage. Noah Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.16 and 14.48, respectively. We have considered Noah Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Noah Holdings is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Noah Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Noah Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Noah Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Noah Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Noah Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.65 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.85 | 11.82 | 0.00 |
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Noah Holdings Hype Timeline
Noah Holdings is now traded for 11.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Noah is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Noah Holdings is about 9.223372036854776E16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.85. About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.58. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Noah Holdings last dividend was issued on the 3rd of July 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Noah Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Noah Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Noah Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Noah Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Noah Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Noah Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CBH | CBH | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade | 0.12 | 5 per month | 0.68 | 0.01 | 0.76 | (1.01) | 3.44 | |
| IHTA | Invesco High Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EOT | Eaton Vance National | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.74 | 0.02 | 1.01 | (1.01) | 2.89 | |
| NXC | Nuveen California Select | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 0.85 | (0.96) | 4.06 | |
| MVT | Blackrock Munivest | (0.14) | 4 per month | 0.61 | 0.05 | 1.19 | (1.21) | 3.12 | |
| FMN | Federated Premier Municipal | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.81 | (0.90) | 2.66 |
Noah Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Noah price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Noah using various technical indicators. When you analyze Noah charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Noah Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Noah Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Noah Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Noah Holdings based on analysis of Noah Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Noah Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Noah Holdings's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 107.4 | 91.54 | 82.39 | 61.26 | PTB Ratio | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
Story Coverage note for Noah Holdings
The number of cover stories for Noah Holdings depends on current market conditions and Noah Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Noah Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Noah Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Noah Holdings Short Properties
Noah Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Noah Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Noah Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Noah Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Noah Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.6 B |
Complementary Tools for Noah Stock analysis
When running Noah Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Noah Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Noah Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Noah Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Noah Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Noah Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Noah Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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