Mgic Investment Corp Stock Price Prediction
| MTG Stock | USD 24.11 0.02 0.08% |
Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.089 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6583 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.838 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.978 | Wall Street Target Price 27.1429 |
Using MGIC Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MGIC Investment Corp from the perspective of MGIC Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MGIC Investment using MGIC Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MGIC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MGIC Investment's stock price.
MGIC Investment Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MGIC Investment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MGIC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MGIC Investment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 23.8781 | Short Percent 0.0474 | Short Ratio 6.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.4 M | 50 Day MA 24.3852 |
MGIC Investment Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MGIC Investment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MGIC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MGIC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MGIC Investment Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MGIC Investment's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MGIC Investment.
MGIC Investment Implied Volatility | 0.74 |
MGIC Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MGIC Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MGIC Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MGIC Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when MGIC Investment's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MGIC Investment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MGIC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MGIC Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 24.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MGIC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MGIC Investment Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0463% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With MGIC Investment trading at USD 24.11, that is roughly USD 0.0112 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MGIC Investment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MGIC Investment Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MGIC |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MGIC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MGIC Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MGIC Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MGIC Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MGIC Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MGIC Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MGIC Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MGIC Investment's historical news coverage. MGIC Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.74 and 25.42, respectively. We have considered MGIC Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MGIC Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MGIC Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
MGIC Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MGIC Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MGIC Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MGIC Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.33 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.11 | 24.08 | 0.04 |
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MGIC Investment Hype Timeline
On the 26th of February MGIC Investment Corp is traded for 24.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. MGIC is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on MGIC Investment is about 440.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.15. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.15. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MGIC Investment Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.54. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of February 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 3rd of June 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out MGIC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MGIC Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MGIC Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MGIC Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how MGIC Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MGIC Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MBI | MBIA Inc | (0.25) | 6 per month | 3.57 | 0.05 | 5.91 | (5.28) | 19.98 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | (0.87) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.32 | (3.52) | 8.05 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.50 | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.02 | 1.89 | (2.51) | 5.89 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.29 | (0) | 1.91 | (2.00) | 5.58 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.42) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.76 | (2.11) | 4.69 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.72 | 0.06 | 3.34 | (3.40) | 11.08 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 0.65 | (0.72) | 4.57 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.28) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.18 | (1.92) | 6.80 | |
| AMBC | Ambac Financial Group | 0.18 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.15 | (2.21) | 12.75 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | 0.54 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.95 | (1.76) | 6.94 | |
| ITIC | Investors Title | 3.58 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.81 | (2.72) | 8.45 |
MGIC Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MGIC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MGIC using various technical indicators. When you analyze MGIC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MGIC Investment Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MGIC Investment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MGIC Investment Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MGIC Investment based on analysis of MGIC Investment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MGIC Investment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MGIC Investment's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.86 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 2.1 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.39 | 4.74 | 5.08 | 4.11 |
Story Coverage note for MGIC Investment
The number of cover stories for MGIC Investment depends on current market conditions and MGIC Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MGIC Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MGIC Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MGIC Investment Short Properties
MGIC Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when MGIC Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MGIC Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MGIC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGIC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 260.8 M |
Complementary Tools for MGIC Stock analysis
When running MGIC Investment's price analysis, check to measure MGIC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MGIC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of MGIC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MGIC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MGIC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MGIC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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