Mfa Financial Stock Price Prediction
| MFA Stock | USD 10.89 0.26 2.45% |
Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3913 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3435 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.502 | Wall Street Target Price 14.5357 |
Using MFA Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MFA Financial from the perspective of MFA Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MFA Financial using MFA Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MFA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MFA Financial's stock price.
MFA Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MFA Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MFA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MFA Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.228 | Short Percent 0.0217 | Short Ratio 1.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.2 M | 50 Day MA 10.3894 |
MFA Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MFA Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MFA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MFA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MFA Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MFA Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MFA Financial.
MFA Financial Implied Volatility | 1.05 |
MFA Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MFA Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MFA Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MFA Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when MFA Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MFA Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MFA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MFA Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 10.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MFA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MFA Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0656% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With MFA Financial trading at USD 10.89, that is roughly USD 0.007147 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MFA Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MFA Financial options at the current volatility level of 1.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MFA |
MFA Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MFA Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MFA Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MFA Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MFA Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MFA Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MFA Financial's historical news coverage. MFA Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.33 and 12.49, respectively. We have considered MFA Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MFA Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MFA Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
MFA Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MFA Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MFA Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MFA Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.58 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.89 | 10.91 | 0.18 |
|
MFA Financial Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2025 MFA Financial is traded for 10.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MFA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on MFA Financial is about 4034.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.89. The company reported the last year's revenue of 252.85 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 119.25 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 244.3 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out MFA Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MFA Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MFA Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MFA Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how MFA Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MFA Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIM | Chimera Investment | (0.23) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.63 | (3.19) | 10.76 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.46) | 12 per month | 1.11 | 0.12 | 1.62 | (2.10) | 4.93 | |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.19 | 1.93 | (1.73) | 8.39 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.13 | 2.32 | (2.16) | 8.74 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | 0.56 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.13 | 4.10 | (2.71) | 10.06 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | 0.12 | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.26 | 2.32 | (1.60) | 10.25 | |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management | (0.22) | 11 per month | 1.04 | 0.22 | 2.42 | (1.75) | 6.82 | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp | 0.11 | 11 per month | 0.83 | 0.23 | 1.90 | (1.46) | 4.66 | |
| BRMK | Broadmark Realty Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.19 | (4.93) | 16.58 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | 0.53 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.17 | 2.56 | (1.71) | 11.61 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.19 | 1.46 | (1.88) | 12.37 |
MFA Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MFA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MFA using various technical indicators. When you analyze MFA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MFA Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MFA Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MFA Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MFA Financial based on analysis of MFA Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MFA Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MFA Financial's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.88 | Dividend Yield | 0.21 | 0.0311 | 0.0296 |
Story Coverage note for MFA Financial
The number of cover stories for MFA Financial depends on current market conditions and MFA Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MFA Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MFA Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
MFA Financial Short Properties
MFA Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when MFA Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MFA Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MFA Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MFA Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 105.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 338.9 M |
Complementary Tools for MFA Stock analysis
When running MFA Financial's price analysis, check to measure MFA Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MFA Financial is operating at the current time. Most of MFA Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MFA Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MFA Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MFA Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. |