Liberty Media Stock Price Prediction
| LLYVA Stock | 63.66 2.01 3.26% |
Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 89 |
Using Liberty Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Liberty Media from the perspective of Liberty Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Liberty Media using Liberty Media's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Liberty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Liberty Media's stock price.
Liberty Media Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Liberty Media's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Liberty Media stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Liberty Media's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Liberty Media stock will not fluctuate a lot when Liberty Media's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Liberty Media to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Liberty because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Liberty Media after-hype prediction price | USD 62.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Liberty contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Liberty Media will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Liberty Media trading at USD 63.66, that is roughly USD 0.0251 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Liberty Media's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Liberty Media options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Liberty |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Liberty Media After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Liberty Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Liberty Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Liberty Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Liberty Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Liberty Media's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Liberty Media's historical news coverage. Liberty Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.97 and 64.81, respectively. We have considered Liberty Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Liberty Media is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Liberty Media is based on 3 months time horizon.
Liberty Media Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Liberty Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Liberty Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Liberty Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.92 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.66 | 62.89 | 1.21 |
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Liberty Media Hype Timeline
Liberty Media is now traded for 63.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Liberty is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 62.89. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 37.28%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -1.21%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Liberty Media is about 1200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.64. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Liberty Media recorded a loss per share of 0.34. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Liberty Media Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Liberty Media Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Liberty Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Liberty Media's future price movements. Getting to know how Liberty Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Liberty Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PMNXF | Perseus Mining Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | 0.17 | 4.65 | (3.33) | 9.77 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.73 | (5.87) | 18.06 | |
| GFF | Griffon | (1.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.22 | (3.19) | 12.51 | |
| RTTGF | RTG Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PIUTQ | Paiute Oil Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CPAC | Cementos Pacasmayo SAA | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 3.04 | (2.90) | 10.27 | |
| HGMCF | Harmony Gold Mining | 0.21 | 12 per month | 3.79 | 0.11 | 12.27 | (4.48) | 38.00 |
Liberty Media Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Liberty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Liberty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Liberty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Liberty Media Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Liberty Media stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Liberty Media, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Liberty Media based on analysis of Liberty Media hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Liberty Media's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Liberty Media's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Liberty Media
The number of cover stories for Liberty Media depends on current market conditions and Liberty Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Liberty Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Liberty Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Liberty Media Short Properties
Liberty Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when Liberty Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Liberty Media often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Liberty Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Liberty Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 325 M |
Complementary Tools for Liberty Stock analysis
When running Liberty Media's price analysis, check to measure Liberty Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Liberty Media is operating at the current time. Most of Liberty Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Liberty Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Liberty Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Liberty Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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