Joby Aviation Stock Price Prediction
| JOBY Stock | USD 6.24 0.25 4.17% |
Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.62) | Wall Street Target Price 8.0625 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.19) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.95) |
Using Joby Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Joby Aviation from the perspective of Joby Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Joby Aviation using Joby Aviation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Joby using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Joby Aviation's stock price.
Joby Aviation Short Interest
An investor who is long Joby Aviation may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Joby Aviation and may potentially protect profits, hedge Joby Aviation with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.328 | Short Percent 0.134 | Short Ratio 5.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 59.7 M | 50 Day MA 7.7336 |
Joby Aviation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Joby Aviation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Joby. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Joby can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Joby Aviation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Joby Aviation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Joby Aviation.
Joby Aviation Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Joby Aviation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Joby Aviation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Joby Aviation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Joby Aviation stock will not fluctuate a lot when Joby Aviation's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Joby Aviation to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Joby because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Joby Aviation after-hype prediction price | USD 6.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Joby contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Joby Aviation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2025-05-02 option contract. With Joby Aviation trading at USD 6.24, that is roughly USD 0.00351 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Joby Aviation's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Joby Aviation options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Joby |
Joby Aviation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Joby Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Joby Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Joby Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Joby Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Joby Aviation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Joby Aviation's historical news coverage. Joby Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.14 and 11.52, respectively. We have considered Joby Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Joby Aviation is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Joby Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Joby Aviation Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Joby Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Joby Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Joby Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 5.19 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.24 | 6.33 | 1.44 |
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Joby Aviation Hype Timeline
Joby Aviation is currently traded for 6.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Joby is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Joby Aviation is about 5521.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.27. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 136 K. Net Loss for the year was (608.03 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 69 K. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Joby Aviation Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Joby Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Joby Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Joby Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how Joby Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Joby Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACHR | Archer Aviation | 0.09 | 11 per month | 5.70 | 0.04 | 13.08 | (9.87) | 34.68 | |
| LILM | Lilium NV | 0.03 | 3 per month | 16.27 | 0.09 | 40.00 | (35.71) | 318.04 | |
| BLDE | Blade Air Mobility | (0.24) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.97 | (7.05) | 24.41 | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | 0.51 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.15 | (8.94) | 40.12 | |
| EVTL | Vertical Aerospace | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 20.75 | (13.20) | 74.49 |
Joby Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Joby price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Joby using various technical indicators. When you analyze Joby charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Joby Aviation Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Joby Aviation stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Joby Aviation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Joby Aviation based on analysis of Joby Aviation hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Joby Aviation's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Joby Aviation's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 3.11 | 0.0157 | 0.0149 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 338.09 | 304.28 | 229.77 |
Story Coverage note for Joby Aviation
The number of cover stories for Joby Aviation depends on current market conditions and Joby Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Joby Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Joby Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Joby Aviation Short Properties
Joby Aviation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Joby Aviation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Joby Aviation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Joby Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Joby Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 699.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 932.9 M |
Additional Tools for Joby Stock Analysis
When running Joby Aviation's price analysis, check to measure Joby Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Joby Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Joby Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Joby Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Joby Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Joby Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.