Jefferies Financial Group Stock Price Prediction
| JEF Stock | USD 56.33 2.07 3.81% |
Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.4742 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.6762 | Wall Street Target Price 81.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.0374 |
Using Jefferies Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jefferies Financial Group from the perspective of Jefferies Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jefferies Financial using Jefferies Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jefferies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jefferies Financial's stock price.
Jefferies Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Jefferies Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Jefferies. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Jefferies Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 63.5458 | Short Percent 0.0157 | Short Ratio 1.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 70.705 |
Jefferies Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Jefferies Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Jefferies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jefferies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jefferies Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Jefferies Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Jefferies Financial.
Jefferies Financial Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Jefferies Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jefferies Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jefferies Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jefferies Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jefferies Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Jefferies Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Jefferies because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Jefferies Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 56.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jefferies contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jefferies Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Jefferies Financial trading at USD 56.33, that is roughly USD 0.0187 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jefferies Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jefferies Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Jefferies |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jefferies Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Jefferies Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jefferies Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jefferies Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Jefferies Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Jefferies Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jefferies Financial's historical news coverage. Jefferies Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.34 and 59.34, respectively. We have considered Jefferies Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Jefferies Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jefferies Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Jefferies Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jefferies Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jefferies Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jefferies Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.50 | 0.51 | 1.08 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
56.33 | 56.84 | 0.91 |
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Jefferies Financial Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2025 Jefferies Financial is traded for 56.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.08. Jefferies is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 56.84 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.91%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Jefferies Financial is about 131.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.25. The company reported the last year's revenue of 10.52 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 743.38 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.53 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Jefferies Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Jefferies Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Jefferies Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jefferies Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Jefferies Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jefferies Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LAZ | Lazard | (1.71) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.04 | (4.56) | 14.41 | |
| PJT | PJT Partners | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.41 | (3.35) | 11.57 | |
| MC | Moelis Co | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.78 | (4.40) | 8.78 | |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey | 2.22 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.98 | (3.01) | 8.89 | |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | (11.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.82 | (3.91) | 9.43 | |
| EVR | Evercore Partners | (3.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.33 | (5.48) | 11.75 | |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 0.96 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.67 | (5.26) | 14.41 |
Jefferies Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Jefferies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jefferies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jefferies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Jefferies Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Jefferies Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Jefferies Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Jefferies Financial based on analysis of Jefferies Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Jefferies Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Jefferies Financial's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0312 | 0.0338 | 0.0176 | 0.0128 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.26 | 1.11 | 1.63 | 0.67 |
Story Coverage note for Jefferies Financial
The number of cover stories for Jefferies Financial depends on current market conditions and Jefferies Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jefferies Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jefferies Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Jefferies Financial Short Properties
Jefferies Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Jefferies Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jefferies Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jefferies Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferies Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 223.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.2 B |
Complementary Tools for Jefferies Stock analysis
When running Jefferies Financial's price analysis, check to measure Jefferies Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jefferies Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Jefferies Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jefferies Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jefferies Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jefferies Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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