Caravelle International Group Stock Price Prediction
| HTCO Stock | USD 2.42 0.11 4.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
70
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.30) |
Using Caravelle International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caravelle International Group from the perspective of Caravelle International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Caravelle International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Caravelle because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Caravelle International after-hype prediction price | USD 2.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Caravelle |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caravelle International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caravelle International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caravelle International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caravelle International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caravelle International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caravelle International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caravelle International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caravelle International's historical news coverage. Caravelle International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 13.84, respectively. We have considered Caravelle International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caravelle International is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caravelle International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caravelle International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caravelle International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caravelle International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caravelle International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.33 | 11.77 | 0.40 | 3.26 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.42 | 2.08 | 16.13 |
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Caravelle International Hype Timeline
Caravelle International is currently traded for 2.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.26. Caravelle is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -16.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 3.33%. The volatility of related hype on Caravelle International is about 1202.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.68. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.11. Caravelle International last dividend was issued on the May 13, 2014. The entity had 3:1 split on the 31st of March 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Caravelle International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Caravelle International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caravelle International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caravelle International's future price movements. Getting to know how Caravelle International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caravelle International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | (2.13) | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 2.78 | (3.10) | 28.75 | |
| SAIA | Saia Inc | 7.16 | 12 per month | 2.23 | 0.04 | 3.84 | (4.16) | 18.12 | |
| MCHX | Marchex | (0.13) | 8 per month | 2.66 | 0.05 | 7.39 | (4.35) | 24.10 | |
| XNET | Xunlei Ltd Adr | (0.06) | 6 per month | 3.86 | 0.09 | 7.50 | (6.12) | 30.75 | |
| FLNT | Fluent Inc | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.77 | (5.88) | 18.65 | |
| BOSC | BOS Better Online | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 2.14 | (2.00) | 7.04 | |
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | 2.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.99 | (3.26) | 8.87 |
Caravelle International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caravelle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caravelle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caravelle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Caravelle International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Caravelle International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Caravelle International Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Caravelle International based on analysis of Caravelle International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Caravelle International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Caravelle International's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Caravelle International
The number of cover stories for Caravelle International depends on current market conditions and Caravelle International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caravelle International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caravelle International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caravelle International Short Properties
Caravelle International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caravelle International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caravelle International Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caravelle International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caravelle International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.8 M |
Check out Caravelle International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Marine Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caravelle International. If investors know Caravelle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caravelle International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.11) | Revenue Per Share 1.526 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.30) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (6.65) |
The market value of Caravelle International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caravelle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caravelle International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caravelle International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caravelle International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caravelle International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caravelle International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caravelle International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caravelle International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.