Hallador Energy Stock Price Prediction
| HNRG Stock | USD 11.11 1.07 10.66% |
Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.92) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.41) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.33) | Wall Street Target Price 15 |
Using Hallador Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hallador Energy from the perspective of Hallador Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hallador Energy using Hallador Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hallador using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hallador Energy's stock price.
Hallador Energy Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Hallador Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hallador Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hallador Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hallador Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hallador Energy's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hallador Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hallador because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hallador Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 11.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hallador contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hallador Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Hallador Energy trading at USD 11.11, that is roughly USD 0.006249 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hallador Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hallador Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Hallador |
Hallador Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hallador Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hallador Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hallador Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hallador Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hallador Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hallador Energy's historical news coverage. Hallador Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.77 and 16.43, respectively. We have considered Hallador Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hallador Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hallador Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hallador Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hallador Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hallador Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hallador Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 5.33 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.11 | 11.10 | 0.09 |
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Hallador Energy Hype Timeline
Hallador Energy is currently traded for 11.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Hallador is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Hallador Energy is about 1002.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.14. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Hallador Energy recorded a loss per share of 0.58. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2020. The firm had 1:10 split on the 4th of June 1996. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Hallador Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hallador Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hallador Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hallador Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Hallador Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hallador Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners | 3.42 | 6 per month | 2.35 | 0.07 | 3.35 | (3.78) | 16.97 | |
| CEIX | CEIX Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ADOOY | Adaro Energy Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.53 | 0.1 | 11.41 | (7.73) | 81.58 | |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 2.94 | (2.77) | 10.41 | |
| NC | NACCO Industries | 0.32 | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 2.85 | (2.94) | 7.20 | |
| ITAYY | Indo Tambangraya Megah | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.30 | |
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.08 | (5.55) | 15.96 |
Hallador Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hallador price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hallador using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hallador charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hallador Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hallador Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hallador Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hallador Energy based on analysis of Hallador Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hallador Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hallador Energy's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0318 | 0.0594 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.53 | 0.5 |
Story Coverage note for Hallador Energy
The number of cover stories for Hallador Energy depends on current market conditions and Hallador Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hallador Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hallador Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hallador Energy Short Properties
Hallador Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hallador Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hallador Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hallador Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hallador Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Hallador Stock analysis
When running Hallador Energy's price analysis, check to measure Hallador Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hallador Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Hallador Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hallador Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hallador Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hallador Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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