First Quantum Minerals Stock Price Prediction
| FM Stock | CAD 19.13 0.33 1.76% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.72) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.03 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3148 | Wall Street Target Price 15.1939 |
Using First Quantum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Quantum Minerals from the perspective of First Quantum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Quantum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Quantum after-hype prediction price | CAD 19.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Quantum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Quantum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Quantum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Quantum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Quantum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Quantum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Quantum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Quantum's historical news coverage. First Quantum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.36 and 22.00, respectively. We have considered First Quantum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Quantum is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Quantum Minerals is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Quantum Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Quantum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Quantum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Quantum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 2.82 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.13 | 19.18 | 0.26 |
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First Quantum Hype Timeline
First Quantum Minerals is currently traded for 19.13on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. First is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on First Quantum is about 758.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.96. The company reported the revenue of 6.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.24 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.2 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out First Quantum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Quantum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Quantum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Quantum's future price movements. Getting to know how First Quantum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Quantum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LUN | Lundin Mining | (0.22) | 3 per month | 3.26 | (0.03) | 4.39 | (4.27) | 14.41 | |
| HBM | HudBay Minerals | 0.14 | 2 per month | 2.84 | 0.05 | 4.17 | (4.81) | 14.84 | |
| TECK-B | Teck Resources Limited | (0.46) | 2 per month | 2.38 | (0.03) | 3.46 | (4.27) | 10.95 | |
| IVN | Ivanhoe Mines | (0.46) | 3 per month | 2.85 | (0.01) | 5.73 | (4.60) | 14.90 | |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | (0.86) | 5 per month | 1.65 | 0 | 3.56 | (2.36) | 11.64 |
First Quantum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About First Quantum Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Quantum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Quantum Minerals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Quantum based on analysis of First Quantum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Quantum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Quantum's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 3.03E-4 | 0.005204 | 0.0165 | 0.009152 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.29 | 1.89 | 0.88 | 0.83 |
Story Coverage note for First Quantum
The number of cover stories for First Quantum depends on current market conditions and First Quantum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Quantum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Quantum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Quantum Short Properties
First Quantum's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Quantum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Quantum Minerals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Quantum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Quantum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 690.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First Quantum financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Quantum security.