Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock Price Prediction
| EARN Stock | USD 6.73 0.12 1.75% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.29 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1768 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1582 | Wall Street Target Price 7.25 |
Using Ellington Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellington Residential Mortgage from the perspective of Ellington Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ellington Residential to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ellington because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ellington Residential after-hype prediction price | USD 6.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ellington |
Ellington Residential After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ellington Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellington Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellington Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ellington Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ellington Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellington Residential's historical news coverage. Ellington Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.73 and 7.97, respectively. We have considered Ellington Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ellington Residential is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellington Residential is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ellington Residential Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellington Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellington Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellington Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.73 | 6.85 | 0.00 |
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Ellington Residential Hype Timeline
Ellington Residential is currently traded for 6.73. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ellington is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ellington Residential is about 2850.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.73. About 24.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.03. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ellington Residential last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Ellington Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ellington Residential Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ellington Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellington Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellington Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellington Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.97 | (1.16) | 4.21 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.04 | (0.09) | 1.38 | (1.47) | 4.37 | |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital | (0.13) | 8 per month | 1.39 | (0.10) | 1.66 | (2.11) | 6.32 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.50 | (0.08) | 1.85 | (2.89) | 6.35 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | 0.15 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.94 | (3.32) | 7.18 |
Ellington Residential Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ellington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Ellington Residential Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ellington Residential stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ellington Residential Mortgage, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ellington Residential based on analysis of Ellington Residential hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ellington Residential's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ellington Residential's related companies. | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.97 | 0.9 | Dividend Yield | 0.0859 | 0.1 |
Story Coverage note for Ellington Residential
The number of cover stories for Ellington Residential depends on current market conditions and Ellington Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellington Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellington Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ellington Residential Short Properties
Ellington Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellington Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellington Residential Mortgage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellington Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.5 M |
Check out Ellington Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share (0.92) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.78) |
The market value of Ellington Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.