Direxion Daily Aerospace Etf Price Prediction
| DFEN Etf | USD 27.59 0.74 2.61% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Direxion Daily hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Direxion Daily Aerospace from the perspective of Direxion Daily response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Direxion Daily to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Direxion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Direxion Daily after-hype prediction price | USD 27.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Direxion |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direxion Daily's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Direxion Daily After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Direxion Daily at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Direxion Daily or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Direxion Daily, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Direxion Daily Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Direxion Daily's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Direxion Daily's historical news coverage. Direxion Daily's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.67 and 31.15, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Direxion Daily is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Direxion Daily Aerospace is based on 3 months time horizon.
Direxion Daily Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Direxion Daily is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Direxion Daily backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Direxion Daily, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 3.74 | 0.18 | 0.95 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
27.59 | 27.41 | 0.65 |
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Direxion Daily Hype Timeline
Direxion Daily Aerospace is currently traded for 27.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.95. Direxion is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.65%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Direxion Daily is about 50.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.54. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Direxion Daily Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Direxion Daily Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Direxion Daily's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Direxion Daily's future price movements. Getting to know how Direxion Daily's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Direxion Daily may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPXL | Direxion Daily SP500 | 0.11 | 2 per month | 2.35 | 0.05 | 2.75 | (2.82) | 16.30 | |
| UPRO | ProShares UltraPro SP500 | (1.08) | 2 per month | 2.31 | 0.05 | 2.78 | (2.81) | 16.31 | |
| TECL | Direxion Daily Technology | 0.54 | 2 per month | 3.77 | 0.06 | 5.41 | (7.18) | 17.81 | |
| FNGU | MicroSectors FANG Index | 37.11 | 1 per month | 3.89 | 0.15 | 7.14 | (6.92) | 21.89 | |
| UYG | ProShares Ultra Financials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.64 | 0.06 | 2.75 | (2.60) | 18.44 |
Direxion Daily Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Direxion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Direxion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Direxion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Direxion Daily Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Direxion Daily stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Direxion Daily Aerospace, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Direxion Daily based on analysis of Direxion Daily hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Direxion Daily's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Direxion Daily's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Direxion Daily
The number of cover stories for Direxion Daily depends on current market conditions and Direxion Daily's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Direxion Daily is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Direxion Daily's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Direxion Daily Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
The market value of Direxion Daily Aerospace is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.