Cogent Biosciences Stock Price Prediction
| COGT Stock | USD 7.64 0.55 6.72% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cogent Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogent Biosciences from the perspective of Cogent Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cogent Biosciences to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cogent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cogent Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 7.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cogent |
Cogent Biosciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cogent Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cogent Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cogent Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cogent Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cogent Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cogent Biosciences' historical news coverage. Cogent Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.77 and 11.05, respectively. We have considered Cogent Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cogent Biosciences is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cogent Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cogent Biosciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cogent Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cogent Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cogent Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 3.62 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0 Events / Month | 15 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.64 | 7.41 | 5.12 |
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Cogent Biosciences Hype Timeline
Cogent Biosciences is currently traded for 7.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.2. Cogent is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Cogent Biosciences is about 848.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.84. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cogent Biosciences was currently reported as 1.85. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.48. Cogent Biosciences last dividend was issued on the 9th of November 2020. The entity had 1:4 split on the 9th of November 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Cogent Biosciences Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cogent Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cogent Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cogent Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Cogent Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cogent Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Cogent Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Cogent Biosciences Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cogent Biosciences stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cogent Biosciences, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cogent Biosciences based on analysis of Cogent Biosciences hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cogent Biosciences's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cogent Biosciences's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Cogent Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Cogent Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Cogent Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cogent Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cogent Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cogent Biosciences Short Properties
Cogent Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cogent Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cogent Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cogent Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 265.7 M |
Additional Tools for Cogent Stock Analysis
When running Cogent Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Cogent Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogent Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Cogent Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogent Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogent Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogent Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.