Cogent Biosciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.41
| COGT Stock | USD 7.64 0.55 6.72% |
Cogent |
Cogent Biosciences Target Price Odds to finish over 7.41
The tendency of Cogent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 7.41 in 90 days |
| 7.64 | 90 days | 7.41 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogent Biosciences to stay above $ 7.41 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Cogent Biosciences probability density function shows the probability of Cogent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cogent Biosciences price to stay between $ 7.41 and its current price of $7.64 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cogent Biosciences has a beta of -1.5 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Cogent Biosciences are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Cogent Biosciences is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Cogent Biosciences has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cogent Biosciences Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cogent Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogent Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogent Biosciences Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogent Biosciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogent Biosciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogent Biosciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogent Biosciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.5 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Cogent Biosciences Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogent Biosciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogent Biosciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cogent Biosciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogent Biosciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Net Loss for the year was (192.41 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (121.63 M). | |
| Cogent Biosciences currently holds about 325.56 M in cash with (153.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.95. | |
| Cogent Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Heres Why Were Watching Cogent Biosciences Cash Burn Situation |
Cogent Biosciences Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogent Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 265.7 M |
Cogent Biosciences Technical Analysis
Cogent Biosciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogent Biosciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cogent Biosciences Predictive Forecast Models
Cogent Biosciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogent Biosciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogent Biosciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cogent Biosciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogent Biosciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogent Biosciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cogent Biosciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogent Biosciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Net Loss for the year was (192.41 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (121.63 M). | |
| Cogent Biosciences currently holds about 325.56 M in cash with (153.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.95. | |
| Cogent Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Heres Why Were Watching Cogent Biosciences Cash Burn Situation |
Additional Tools for Cogent Stock Analysis
When running Cogent Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Cogent Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogent Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Cogent Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogent Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogent Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogent Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.