Capitol Federal Financial Stock Price Prediction
| CFFN Stock | USD 5.72 0.02 0.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.167 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.44 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.51 | Wall Street Target Price 7 |
Using Capitol Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capitol Federal Financial from the perspective of Capitol Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Capitol Federal using Capitol Federal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Capitol using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Capitol Federal's stock price.
Capitol Federal Implied Volatility | 1.16 |
Capitol Federal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Capitol Federal Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Capitol Federal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Capitol Federal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Capitol Federal's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Capitol Federal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Capitol because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Capitol Federal after-hype prediction price | USD 5.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Capitol |
Capitol Federal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Capitol Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capitol Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capitol Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Capitol Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Capitol Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capitol Federal's historical news coverage. Capitol Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.57 and 7.85, respectively. We have considered Capitol Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Capitol Federal is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capitol Federal Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Capitol Federal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capitol Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capitol Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capitol Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.14 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.72 | 5.71 | 0.17 |
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Capitol Federal Hype Timeline
Capitol Federal Financial is currently traded for 5.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Capitol is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Capitol Federal is about 1935.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.74. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.72. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Capitol Federal Financial last dividend was issued on the 1st of November 2024. The entity had 22637:1000 split on the 22nd of December 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Capitol Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Capitol Federal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Capitol Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capitol Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Capitol Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capitol Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Capitol Federal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Capitol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capitol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capitol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Capitol Federal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Capitol Federal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Capitol Federal Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Capitol Federal based on analysis of Capitol Federal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Capitol Federal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Capitol Federal's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.8 | Dividend Yield | 0.13 | 0.0587 | 0.0528 | 0.0381 |
Story Coverage note for Capitol Federal
The number of cover stories for Capitol Federal depends on current market conditions and Capitol Federal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Capitol Federal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Capitol Federal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Capitol Federal Short Properties
Capitol Federal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Capitol Federal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Capitol Federal Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Capitol Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capitol Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 129.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 217.3 M |
Check out Capitol Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capitol Federal. If investors know Capitol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Capitol Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.167 | Dividend Share 0.34 | Earnings Share 0.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.11 |
The market value of Capitol Federal Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Capitol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Capitol Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Capitol Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Capitol Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Capitol Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Capitol Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Capitol Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capitol Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.