Bgc Group Stock Price Prediction
| BGC Stock | 8.81 0.28 3.28% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.286 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.27 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.155 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.345 | Wall Street Target Price 14 |
Using BGC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BGC Group from the perspective of BGC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BGC using BGC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BGC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BGC's stock price.
BGC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in BGC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards BGC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of BGC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 9.3185 | Short Percent 0.0369 | Short Ratio 3.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.6 M | 50 Day MA 9.3656 |
BGC Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BGC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BGC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BGC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BGC Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BGC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BGC.
BGC Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
BGC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BGC Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BGC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BGC stock will not fluctuate a lot when BGC's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BGC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BGC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BGC after-hype prediction price | USD 8.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BGC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BGC Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With BGC trading at USD 8.81, that is roughly USD 0.003909 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BGC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring BGC Group options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
BGC |
BGC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BGC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BGC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BGC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BGC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BGC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BGC's historical news coverage. BGC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.50 and 11.10, respectively. We have considered BGC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BGC is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BGC Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
BGC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BGC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BGC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BGC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.30 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.81 | 8.80 | 0.11 |
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BGC Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2025 BGC Group is traded for 8.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. BGC is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on BGC is about 1288.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.81. About 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of BGC was currently reported as 1.86. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.22. BGC Group last dividend was issued on the 6th of March 2025. The entity had 1555:1000 split on the 3rd of December 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out BGC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BGC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BGC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BGC's future price movements. Getting to know how BGC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BGC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | (1.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.42 | (2.91) | 8.46 | |
| SHLLF | Shelf Drilling | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.53 | (7.78) | 30.22 | |
| DKDRF | Delek Drilling | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 3.85 | (0.30) | 16.44 | |
| MJDLF | Major Drilling Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.91 | (5.39) | 15.42 | |
| ACRG | American Clean Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CCGY | China Clean Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HP | Helmerich and Payne | (0.19) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.46 | (3.46) | 20.97 |
BGC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BGC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BGC using various technical indicators. When you analyze BGC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About BGC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BGC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BGC Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BGC based on analysis of BGC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BGC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BGC's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.007892 | 0.005645 | 0.007966 | 0.007568 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.05 | 1.58 | 1.94 | 2.71 |
Story Coverage note for BGC
The number of cover stories for BGC depends on current market conditions and BGC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BGC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BGC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BGC Short Properties
BGC's future price predictability will typically decrease when BGC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BGC Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BGC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BGC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 479.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 711.6 M |
Complementary Tools for BGC Stock analysis
When running BGC's price analysis, check to measure BGC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BGC is operating at the current time. Most of BGC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BGC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BGC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BGC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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