Ambac Financial Group Stock Price Prediction
| AMBC Stock | USD 8.39 0.04 0.48% |
Momentum 20
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.07) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1 | Wall Street Target Price 17 |
Using Ambac Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ambac Financial Group from the perspective of Ambac Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ambac Financial using Ambac Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ambac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ambac Financial's stock price.
Ambac Financial Implied Volatility | 1.06 |
Ambac Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ambac Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ambac Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ambac Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ambac Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ambac Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ambac because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ambac Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 7.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ambac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ambac Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0663% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Ambac Financial trading at USD 8.39, that is roughly USD 0.005558 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ambac Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ambac Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 1.06%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ambac |
Ambac Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ambac Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ambac Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ambac Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ambac Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ambac Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ambac Financial's historical news coverage. Ambac Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.22 and 10.58, respectively. We have considered Ambac Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ambac Financial is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ambac Financial Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ambac Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ambac Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ambac Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ambac Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.75 | 2.68 | 0.49 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.39 | 7.90 | 5.84 |
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Ambac Financial Hype Timeline
Ambac Financial Group is presently traded for 8.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Ambac is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.84%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.75%. The volatility of related hype on Ambac Financial is about 1813.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.28. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.45. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ambac Financial Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.9. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.13. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Ambac Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ambac Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ambac Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ambac Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ambac Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ambac Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIG | Employers Holdings | 1.29 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.97 | (2.27) | 5.62 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | 0.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 4.31 | (3.40) | 35.31 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 0.26 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 2.10 | (3.07) | 7.84 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.55 | 0.17 | 1.18 | (0.64) | 4.57 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.10) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.91 | (2.88) | 6.29 | |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.80 | (3.15) | 7.24 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | (0.32) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.94 | (1.77) | 5.38 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.87 | (2.56) | 5.90 | |
| ITIC | Investors Title | (2.56) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.90 | (2.72) | 8.45 |
Ambac Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ambac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ambac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ambac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ambac Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ambac Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ambac Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ambac Financial based on analysis of Ambac Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ambac Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ambac Financial's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.25E-4 | 1.19E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.52 | 4.73 |
Story Coverage note for Ambac Financial
The number of cover stories for Ambac Financial depends on current market conditions and Ambac Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ambac Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ambac Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ambac Financial Short Properties
Ambac Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ambac Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ambac Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ambac Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambac Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Ambac Stock analysis
When running Ambac Financial's price analysis, check to measure Ambac Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ambac Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ambac Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ambac Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ambac Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ambac Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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