Applied Opt Stock Price Prediction
| AAOI Stock | USD 22.11 6.24 39.32% |
Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7267 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.385 | Wall Street Target Price 32.2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.02) |
Using Applied Opt hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Opt from the perspective of Applied Opt response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Opt using Applied Opt's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Opt's stock price.
Applied Opt Implied Volatility | 1.4 |
Applied Opt's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Opt stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Opt's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Opt stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Opt's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Applied Opt to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Applied because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Applied Opt after-hype prediction price | USD 20.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applied contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applied Opt will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0875% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Applied Opt trading at USD 22.11, that is roughly USD 0.0193 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applied Opt's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applied Opt options at the current volatility level of 1.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Applied |
Applied Opt After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Opt at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Opt or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Opt, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Opt Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Opt's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Opt's historical news coverage. Applied Opt's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.26 and 29.74, respectively. We have considered Applied Opt's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Opt is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Opt is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Opt Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Opt is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Opt backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Opt, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 9.16 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
22.11 | 20.50 | 7.28 |
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Applied Opt Hype Timeline
Applied Opt is presently traded for 22.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.57, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.74. Applied is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -7.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Opt is about 448.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.37. About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Applied Opt was presently reported as 4.64. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.51. Applied Opt recorded a loss per share of 4.5. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Applied Opt Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Applied Opt Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Opt's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Opt's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Opt's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Opt may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | (1.66) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.51 | (7.31) | 28.11 | |
| ICHR | Ichor Holdings | (0.35) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.80 | (5.46) | 24.85 | |
| FN | Fabrinet | (7.73) | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5.54 | (7.17) | 27.92 | |
| MOMO | Hello Group | (0.07) | 7 per month | 2.96 | 0.07 | 4.94 | (4.15) | 17.51 | |
| UCTT | Ultra Clean Holdings | (0.40) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.52 | (5.78) | 32.72 |
Applied Opt Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Applied Opt Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Applied Opt stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Applied Opt, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Applied Opt based on analysis of Applied Opt hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Applied Opt's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Applied Opt's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 100.77 | 170.96 | 179.51 | PTB Ratio | 0.28 | 6.68 | 7.02 |
Story Coverage note for Applied Opt
The number of cover stories for Applied Opt depends on current market conditions and Applied Opt's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Opt is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Opt's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Opt Short Properties
Applied Opt's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Opt's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Opt often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Opt's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Opt's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 67.4 M |
Complementary Tools for Applied Stock analysis
When running Applied Opt's price analysis, check to measure Applied Opt's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Opt is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Opt's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Opt's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Opt's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Opt to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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