Correlation Between Cocoa and Wheat Futures

Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Cocoa and Wheat Futures at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Cocoa and Wheat Futures into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.

By analyzing existing cross correlation between Cocoa and Wheat Futures, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Cocoa and Wheat Futures and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Cocoa with a short position of Wheat Futures. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Cocoa and Wheat Futures.

Diversification Opportunities for Cocoa and Wheat Futures

-0.25

Correlation Coefficient

Cocoa  Wheat Futures

Very good diversification

The 3 months correlation between Cocoa and Wheat is -0.25. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Cocoa and Wheat Futures in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on Wheat Futures and Cocoa is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Cocoa are associated (or correlated) with Wheat Futures. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of Wheat Futures has no effect on the direction of Cocoa i.e., Cocoa and Wheat Futures go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Cocoa and Wheat Futures

Assuming the 90 days horizon Cocoa is expected to under-perform the Wheat Futures. In addition to that, Cocoa is 2.37 times more volatile than Wheat Futures. It trades about -0.11 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. Wheat Futures is currently generating about 0.04 per unit of volatility. If you would invest  55,150  in Wheat Futures on December 26, 2024 and sell it today you would earn a total of  1,775  from holding Wheat Futures or generate 3.22% return on investment over 90 days.

Time Period	3 Months [change]
Direction	Moves Against
Strength	Insignificant
Accuracy	100.0%
Values	Daily Returns

Cocoa  vs.  Wheat Futures

Cocoa

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Very Weak

Over the last 90 days Cocoa has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of unsteady performance in the last few months, the Commodity's basic indicators remain rather sound which may send shares a bit higher in April 2025. The latest tumult may also be a sign of longer-term up-swing for Cocoa shareholders.

Wheat Futures

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Insignificant

Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Wheat Futures are ranked lower than 3 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly strong basic indicators, Wheat Futures is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.

Pair Trading with Cocoa and Wheat Futures

The main advantage of trading using opposite Cocoa and Wheat Futures positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Cocoa position performs unexpectedly, Wheat Futures can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Wheat Futures will offset losses from the drop in Wheat Futures' long position.

The idea behind Cocoa and Wheat Futures pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.

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Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.