Correlation Between Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial

Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.

By analyzing existing cross correlation between Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial Group, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Assured Guaranty with a short position of Ambac Financial. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial.

Diversification Opportunities for Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial

0.75

Correlation Coefficient

Assured Guaranty  Ambac Financial

Poor diversification

The 3 months correlation between Assured and Ambac is 0.75. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial Group in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on Ambac Financial Group and Assured Guaranty is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Assured Guaranty are associated (or correlated) with Ambac Financial. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of Ambac Financial Group has no effect on the direction of Assured Guaranty i.e., Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial

Considering the 90-day investment horizon Assured Guaranty is expected to generate 0.6 times more return on investment than Ambac Financial. However, Assured Guaranty is 1.66 times less risky than Ambac Financial. It trades about -0.01 of its potential returns per unit of risk. Ambac Financial Group is currently generating about -0.22 per unit of risk. If you would invest  8,902  in Assured Guaranty on December 28, 2024 and sell it today you would lose (179.00) from holding Assured Guaranty or give up 2.01% of portfolio value over 90 days.

Time Period	3 Months [change]
Direction	Moves Together
Strength	Significant
Accuracy	100.0%
Values	Daily Returns

Assured Guaranty  vs.  Ambac Financial Group

Assured Guaranty

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Very Weak

Over the last 90 days Assured Guaranty has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of very healthy technical and fundamental indicators, Assured Guaranty is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price disarray, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.

Ambac Financial Group

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Very Weak

Over the last 90 days Ambac Financial Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of weak performance in the last few months, the Stock's fundamental drivers remain rather sound which may send shares a bit higher in April 2025. The latest tumult may also be a sign of longer-term up-swing for the firm shareholders.

Pair Trading with Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial

The main advantage of trading using opposite Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Assured Guaranty position performs unexpectedly, Ambac Financial can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ambac Financial will offset losses from the drop in Ambac Financial's long position.

The idea behind Assured Guaranty and Ambac Financial Group pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.

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Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.