Amphenol Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

XPH Stock  EUR 68.00  0.20  0.29%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amphenol on the next trading day is expected to be 67.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.24. Amphenol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amphenol's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Amphenol is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amphenol value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Amphenol Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amphenol on the next trading day is expected to be 67.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 1.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amphenol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amphenol's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amphenol Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AmphenolAmphenol Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amphenol Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amphenol's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amphenol's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.52 and 68.72, respectively. We have considered Amphenol's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
68.00
67.12
Expected Value
68.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amphenol stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amphenol stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5163
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9875
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors60.2374
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amphenol. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amphenol. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Amphenol

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amphenol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.4168.0069.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.2077.9979.58
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amphenol

For every potential investor in Amphenol, whether a beginner or expert, Amphenol's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amphenol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amphenol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amphenol's price trends.

Amphenol Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amphenol stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amphenol could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amphenol by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amphenol Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amphenol's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amphenol's current price.

Amphenol Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amphenol stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amphenol shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amphenol stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amphenol entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amphenol Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amphenol's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amphenol's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amphenol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Amphenol Stock

When determining whether Amphenol offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amphenol's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amphenol Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amphenol Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amphenol to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Amphenol Stock please use our How to Invest in Amphenol guide.
You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amphenol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amphenol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amphenol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.