Amphenol Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

XPH Stock  EUR 68.00  0.20  0.29%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amphenol on the next trading day is expected to be 67.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.54. Amphenol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amphenol's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Amphenol - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Amphenol prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Amphenol price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amphenol.

Amphenol Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amphenol on the next trading day is expected to be 67.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amphenol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amphenol's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amphenol Stock Forecast Pattern

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Amphenol Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amphenol's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amphenol's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.20 and 69.38, respectively. We have considered Amphenol's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
68.00
67.79
Expected Value
69.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amphenol stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amphenol stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1025
MADMean absolute deviation0.9075
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0138
SAESum of the absolute errors53.5444
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amphenol observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amphenol observations.

Predictive Modules for Amphenol

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amphenol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.4168.0069.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.2077.9979.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
67.0469.5372.01
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amphenol

For every potential investor in Amphenol, whether a beginner or expert, Amphenol's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amphenol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amphenol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amphenol's price trends.

Amphenol Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amphenol stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amphenol could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amphenol by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amphenol Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amphenol's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amphenol's current price.

Amphenol Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amphenol stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amphenol shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amphenol stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amphenol entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amphenol Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amphenol's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amphenol's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amphenol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Amphenol Stock

When determining whether Amphenol offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amphenol's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amphenol Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amphenol Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amphenol to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Amphenol Stock please use our How to Invest in Amphenol guide.
You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amphenol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amphenol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amphenol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.