Townsquare Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TSQ Stock  USD 8.54  0.11  1.30%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Townsquare Media on the next trading day is expected to be 8.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. Townsquare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Townsquare Media's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Townsquare Media's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Townsquare Media fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Townsquare Media's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/01/2025, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 3.41, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 30.51. . As of 03/01/2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 19.5 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 11.7 M.

Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Townsquare Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Townsquare Media's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Townsquare Media's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Townsquare Media stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Townsquare Media's open interest, investors have to compare it to Townsquare Media's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Townsquare Media is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Townsquare. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Townsquare Media Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Townsquare Media's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2000-12-31
Previous Quarter
28.5 M
Current Value
21.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
26 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Townsquare Media is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Townsquare Media value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Townsquare Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Townsquare Media on the next trading day is expected to be 8.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Townsquare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Townsquare Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Townsquare Media Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Townsquare MediaTownsquare Media Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Townsquare Media Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Townsquare Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Townsquare Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.44 and 10.32, respectively. We have considered Townsquare Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.54
8.38
Expected Value
10.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Townsquare Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Townsquare Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1335
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1027
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0111
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3692
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Townsquare Media. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Townsquare Media. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Townsquare Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Townsquare Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Townsquare Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.538.4710.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.6911.2513.19
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.2919.0021.09
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Townsquare Media

For every potential investor in Townsquare, whether a beginner or expert, Townsquare Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Townsquare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Townsquare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Townsquare Media's price trends.

Townsquare Media Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Townsquare Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Townsquare Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Townsquare Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Townsquare Media Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Townsquare Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Townsquare Media's current price.

Townsquare Media Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Townsquare Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Townsquare Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Townsquare Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Townsquare Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Townsquare Media Risk Indicators

The analysis of Townsquare Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Townsquare Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting townsquare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Additional Tools for Townsquare Stock Analysis

When running Townsquare Media's price analysis, check to measure Townsquare Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Townsquare Media is operating at the current time. Most of Townsquare Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Townsquare Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Townsquare Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Townsquare Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.