Gubre Fabrikalari Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GUBRF Stock  TRY 278.75  2.25  0.80%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS on the next trading day is expected to be 272.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 299.82. Gubre Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gubre Fabrikalari's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Gubre Fabrikalari is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gubre Fabrikalari Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS on the next trading day is expected to be 272.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.92, mean absolute percentage error of 39.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 299.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gubre Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gubre Fabrikalari's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gubre Fabrikalari Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gubre FabrikalariGubre Fabrikalari Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Gubre Fabrikalari Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gubre Fabrikalari's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gubre Fabrikalari's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 269.88 and 275.35, respectively. We have considered Gubre Fabrikalari's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
278.75
269.88
Downside
272.62
Expected Value
275.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gubre Fabrikalari stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gubre Fabrikalari stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.776
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.9151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0235
SAESum of the absolute errors299.8201
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gubre Fabrikalari. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gubre Fabrikalari

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gubre Fabrikalari TAS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
276.01278.75281.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
231.41234.15306.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gubre Fabrikalari. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gubre Fabrikalari's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gubre Fabrikalari's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gubre Fabrikalari TAS.

Other Forecasting Options for Gubre Fabrikalari

For every potential investor in Gubre, whether a beginner or expert, Gubre Fabrikalari's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gubre Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gubre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gubre Fabrikalari's price trends.

Gubre Fabrikalari Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gubre Fabrikalari stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gubre Fabrikalari could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gubre Fabrikalari by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gubre Fabrikalari TAS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gubre Fabrikalari's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gubre Fabrikalari's current price.

Gubre Fabrikalari Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gubre Fabrikalari stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gubre Fabrikalari shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gubre Fabrikalari stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gubre Fabrikalari TAS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gubre Fabrikalari Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gubre Fabrikalari's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gubre Fabrikalari's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gubre stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Other Information on Investing in Gubre Stock

Gubre Fabrikalari financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gubre Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gubre with respect to the benefits of owning Gubre Fabrikalari security.