Avadel Pharmaceuticals Plc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AVDL Stock | USD 8.53 0.04 0.47% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC is 'Cautious Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Avadel Pharmaceuticals Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Avadel and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.
Avadel |
Execute Avadel Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice
The Avadel recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Avadel Pharmaceuticals' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
3 Months |
Risk Tolerance
I am an educated risk taker |
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Slightly risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves slightly opposite to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 169.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (48.83 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 16.59 M. | |
| Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC currently holds about 104.12 M in cash with (46.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.74. | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc Receives Consensus Recommendation of Buy from Analysts |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Avadel Pharmaceuticals.
| Mean Return | -0.27 |
| Value At Risk | -4.23 |
| Potential Upside | 5.12 |
| Standard Deviation | 4.31 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Avadel Pharmaceuticals historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Avadel Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | |||
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 2.1 M | |
| Tri Locum Partners Lp | 2024-12-31 | 1.9 M | |
| State Street Corp | 2024-12-31 | 1.7 M | |
| Ubs Group Ag | 2024-12-31 | 1.6 M | |
| Tang Capital Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.5 M | |
| Millennium Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | |
| Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | |
| Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | |
| Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2024-12-31 | 1.1 M | |
| Hhg Plc | 2024-12-31 | 14.1 M | |
| Gendell Jeffrey L | 2024-12-31 | 6.3 M |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (1.4M) | (2.8M) | (30K) | (9.5M) | (9.2M) | (8.8M) | |
| Change In Cash | 61.9M | (21.0M) | 23.3M | (42.8M) | 20.2M | 21.2M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (48.8M) | (77.3M) | (71.0M) | (128.5M) | (46.9M) | (44.6M) | |
| Depreciation | 1.7M | 815K | 1.5M | 1.8M | 2.7M | 4.6M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (44.9M) | 2.3M | 8.1M | 17.2M | (828K) | (786.6K) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 20.2M | 29K | 98K | 26K | 716K | 0.0 | |
| Net Income | 7.0M | (77.3M) | (137.5M) | (160.3M) | (48.8M) | (46.4M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 71.7M | 50.7M | 74.0M | 31.2M | 51.4M | 29.2M | |
| Investments | (95.1M) | 40.5M | 79.7M | (50.1M) | 51.8M | 54.4M | |
| Change To Netincome | (6.1M) | (50.1M) | (5.5M) | 35.1M | 31.6M | 33.2M |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Avadel Pharmaceuticals or Pharmaceuticals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Avadel stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Volatility Alert
Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -2.94 and kurtosis of 20.18. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Avadel Pharmaceuticals' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Avadel Pharmaceuticals' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Avadel Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Avadel Pharmaceuticals' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Avadel Pharmaceuticals' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Avadel Pharmaceuticals and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Avadel Pharmaceuticals or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avadel Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Avadel Pharmaceuticals to competition |
| Fundamentals | Avadel Pharmaceuticals | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -1.0 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (1.12) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.31) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 752.18 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 96.27 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.77 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 80.00 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 10.35 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 61.46 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 11.16 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 4.87 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 169.12 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 16.59 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (35.57 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (48.83 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 104.12 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.74 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.7 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.63 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.72 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 0.98 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (46.91 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 12.45 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.09) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.07 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 24.7 | |
| Number Of Employees | 188 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.63 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.27 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 164.24 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (794.33 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 85.37 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Thomas McHugh of 150000 shares of Avadel Pharmaceuticals at 8.2 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Avadel Pharmaceuticals Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Avadel . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 19721.81 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) |
About Avadel Pharmaceuticals Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC? Buying financial instruments such as Avadel Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Avadel Pharmaceuticals Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avadel Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Avadel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avadel Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.09) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 26.743 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Avadel Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avadel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avadel Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avadel Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avadel Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avadel Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avadel Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avadel Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avadel Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.