ZTO EXPRESS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.25
| ZTOB Stock | EUR 18.60 0.20 1.06% |
ZTO |
ZTO EXPRESS Target Price Odds to finish below 15.25
The tendency of ZTO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 15.25 or more in 90 days |
| 18.60 | 90 days | 15.25 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ZTO EXPRESS to drop to € 15.25 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ZTO EXPRESS probability density function shows the probability of ZTO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ZTO EXPRESS price to stay between € 15.25 and its current price of €18.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ZTO EXPRESS has a beta of 0.0852. This usually means as returns on the market go up, ZTO EXPRESS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ZTO EXPRESS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ZTO EXPRESS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ZTO EXPRESS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ZTO EXPRESS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ZTO EXPRESS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ZTO EXPRESS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ZTO EXPRESS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ZTO EXPRESS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ZTO EXPRESS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ZTO EXPRESS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
ZTO EXPRESS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ZTO EXPRESS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ZTO EXPRESS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ZTO EXPRESS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ZTO EXPRESS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
ZTO EXPRESS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ZTO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ZTO EXPRESS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ZTO EXPRESS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Float | 411.8 M |
ZTO EXPRESS Technical Analysis
ZTO EXPRESS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ZTO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ZTO EXPRESS. In general, you should focus on analyzing ZTO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ZTO EXPRESS Predictive Forecast Models
ZTO EXPRESS's time-series forecasting models is one of many ZTO EXPRESS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ZTO EXPRESS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ZTO EXPRESS
Checking the ongoing alerts about ZTO EXPRESS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ZTO EXPRESS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ZTO EXPRESS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ZTO EXPRESS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ZTO Stock
When determining whether ZTO EXPRESS offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ZTO EXPRESS's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Zto Express Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Zto Express Stock:Check out ZTO EXPRESS Backtesting, ZTO EXPRESS Valuation, ZTO EXPRESS Correlation, ZTO EXPRESS Hype Analysis, ZTO EXPRESS Volatility, ZTO EXPRESS History as well as ZTO EXPRESS Performance. For more detail on how to invest in ZTO Stock please use our How to Invest in ZTO EXPRESS guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.