KEY 5 26 JAN 33 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 103.43

49327M3H5   81.37  14.53  15.15%   
49327M3H5's future price is the expected price of 49327M3H5 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of KEY 5 26 JAN 33 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 49327M3H5 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 49327M3H5 Correlation, 49327M3H5 Hype Analysis, 49327M3H5 Volatility, 49327M3H5 History as well as 49327M3H5 Performance.
  
Please specify 49327M3H5's target price for which you would like 49327M3H5 odds to be computed.

49327M3H5 Target Price Odds to finish over 103.43

The tendency of 49327M3H5 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  103.43  or more in 90 days
 81.37 90 days 103.43 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 49327M3H5 to move over  103.43  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This KEY 5 26 JAN 33 probability density function shows the probability of 49327M3H5 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of 49327M3H5 price to stay between its current price of  81.37  and  103.43  at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KEY 5 26 JAN 33 has a beta of -0.0797. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 49327M3H5 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, KEY 5 26 JAN 33 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally KEY 5 26 JAN 33 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   49327M3H5 Price Density   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.1584.2786.488.5490.6792.896.097.6100.27102.4104.0Current PriceTarget49327M3H5 Mean 0.050.100.15
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 49327M3H5

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 49327M3H5. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.6681.3784.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
69.4972.2089.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
74.8977.6080.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
44.3193.45142.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 49327M3H5. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 49327M3H5's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 49327M3H5's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in 49327M3H5.

49327M3H5 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 49327M3H5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 49327M3H5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KEY 5 26 JAN 33, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 49327M3H5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.29
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.08
σ
Overall volatility
2.39
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

49327M3H5 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 49327M3H5 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for 49327M3H5 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
49327M3H5 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

49327M3H5 Technical Analysis

49327M3H5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 49327M3H5 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KEY 5 26 JAN 33. In general, you should focus on analyzing 49327M3H5 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

49327M3H5 Predictive Forecast Models

49327M3H5's time-series forecasting models is one of many 49327M3H5's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 49327M3H5's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about 49327M3H5

Checking the ongoing alerts about 49327M3H5 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for 49327M3H5 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
49327M3H5 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 49327M3H5 Bond

49327M3H5 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 49327M3H5 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 49327M3H5 with respect to the benefits of owning 49327M3H5 security.