Turcas Petrol (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.66
| TRCAS Stock | TRY 26.40 0.58 2.15% |
Turcas |
Turcas Petrol Target Price Odds to finish below 23.66
The tendency of Turcas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 23.66 or more in 90 days |
| 26.40 | 90 days | 23.66 | about 54.55 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Turcas Petrol to drop to 23.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 54.55 (This Turcas Petrol AS probability density function shows the probability of Turcas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Turcas Petrol AS price to stay between 23.66 and its current price of 26.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Turcas Petrol AS has a beta of -0.29. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Turcas Petrol are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Turcas Petrol AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Turcas Petrol AS has an alpha of 0.2161, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Turcas Petrol Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Turcas Petrol
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turcas Petrol AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turcas Petrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turcas Petrol Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Turcas Petrol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Turcas Petrol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Turcas Petrol AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Turcas Petrol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Turcas Petrol Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Turcas Petrol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Turcas Petrol AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Turcas Petrol AS has accumulated 586.31 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.26, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Turcas Petrol AS has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Turcas Petrol until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Turcas Petrol's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Turcas Petrol AS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Turcas to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Turcas Petrol's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (80.1 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.14 M). | |
| About 54.0% of Turcas Petrol outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Turcas Petrol Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Turcas Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Turcas Petrol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turcas Petrol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 247.1 M |
Turcas Petrol Technical Analysis
Turcas Petrol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Turcas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Turcas Petrol AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Turcas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Turcas Petrol Predictive Forecast Models
Turcas Petrol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Turcas Petrol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Turcas Petrol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Turcas Petrol AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Turcas Petrol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Turcas Petrol AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Turcas Petrol AS has accumulated 586.31 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.26, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Turcas Petrol AS has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Turcas Petrol until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Turcas Petrol's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Turcas Petrol AS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Turcas to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Turcas Petrol's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (80.1 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.14 M). | |
| About 54.0% of Turcas Petrol outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Turcas Stock
Turcas Petrol financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turcas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turcas with respect to the benefits of owning Turcas Petrol security.