Turcas Petrol (Turkey) Market Value
| TRCAS Stock | TRY 26.40 0.58 2.15% |
| Symbol | Turcas |
Turcas Petrol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turcas Petrol's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turcas Petrol.
| 11/21/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turcas Petrol on November 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turcas Petrol AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turcas Petrol over 30 days. Turcas Petrol is related to or competes with Ege Endustri, Borusan Yatirim, Turkiye Petrol, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus Hava, Konya Cimento, and Celebi Hava. Turcas Petrol A.S., through its subsidiaries, operates in the fuel retail and lubricants, conventional energy, and renew... More
Turcas Petrol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turcas Petrol's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turcas Petrol AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0831 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.65 |
Turcas Petrol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turcas Petrol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turcas Petrol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turcas Petrol historical prices to predict the future Turcas Petrol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0836 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2161 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1464 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0905 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.71) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turcas Petrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turcas Petrol AS Backtested Returns
Turcas Petrol is not too volatile at the moment. Turcas Petrol AS owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0602, which indicates the firm had a 0.0602% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Turcas Petrol AS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Turcas Petrol's Coefficient Of Variation of 1027.59, semi deviation of 1.89, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0836 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. Turcas Petrol has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.29, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Turcas Petrol are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Turcas Petrol is likely to outperform the market. Turcas Petrol AS right now has a risk of 2.2%. Please validate Turcas Petrol potential upside, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if Turcas Petrol will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Turcas Petrol AS has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turcas Petrol time series from 21st of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turcas Petrol AS price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Turcas Petrol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.12 |
Turcas Petrol AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turcas Petrol stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turcas Petrol's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turcas Petrol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turcas Petrol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Turcas Petrol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turcas Petrol stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turcas Petrol stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turcas Petrol stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turcas Petrol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turcas Petrol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turcas Petrol stock have on its future price. Turcas Petrol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turcas Petrol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turcas Petrol stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turcas Petrol AS.
Regressed Prices |
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Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Turcas Stock
Turcas Petrol financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turcas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turcas with respect to the benefits of owning Turcas Petrol security.