Paragon GmbH (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.82
| PGN Stock | EUR 2.12 0.27 14.59% |
Paragon |
Paragon GmbH Target Price Odds to finish over 1.82
The tendency of Paragon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 1.82 in 90 days |
| 2.12 | 90 days | 1.82 | about 73.98 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Paragon GmbH to stay above € 1.82 in 90 days from now is about 73.98 (This paragon GmbH Co probability density function shows the probability of Paragon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of paragon GmbH price to stay between € 1.82 and its current price of €2.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.3 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon paragon GmbH Co has a beta of -0.83 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Paragon GmbH are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, paragon GmbH Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Paragon GmbH Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Paragon GmbH Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Paragon GmbH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as paragon GmbH. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Paragon GmbH Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Paragon GmbH is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Paragon GmbH's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold paragon GmbH Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Paragon GmbH within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Paragon GmbH Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Paragon GmbH for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for paragon GmbH can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| paragon GmbH generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| paragon GmbH has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| paragon GmbH has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 146.92 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 80.86 M. | |
| About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Paragon GmbH Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Paragon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Paragon GmbH's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Paragon GmbH's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.5 M |
Paragon GmbH Technical Analysis
Paragon GmbH's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Paragon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of paragon GmbH Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Paragon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Paragon GmbH Predictive Forecast Models
Paragon GmbH's time-series forecasting models is one of many Paragon GmbH's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Paragon GmbH's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about paragon GmbH
Checking the ongoing alerts about Paragon GmbH for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for paragon GmbH help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| paragon GmbH generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| paragon GmbH has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| paragon GmbH has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 146.92 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 80.86 M. | |
| About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Paragon Stock
Paragon GmbH financial ratios help investors to determine whether Paragon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Paragon with respect to the benefits of owning Paragon GmbH security.