Mgic Investment Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.95
| MTG Stock | USD 23.69 0.31 1.29% |
MGIC |
MGIC Investment Target Price Odds to finish below 20.95
The tendency of MGIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.95 or more in 90 days |
| 23.69 | 90 days | 20.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MGIC Investment to drop to $ 20.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MGIC Investment Corp probability density function shows the probability of MGIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MGIC Investment Corp price to stay between $ 20.95 and its current price of $23.69 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.48 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon MGIC Investment has a beta of 0.36. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MGIC Investment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MGIC Investment Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MGIC Investment Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MGIC Investment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MGIC Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGIC Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MGIC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MGIC Investment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MGIC Investment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MGIC Investment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MGIC Investment Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MGIC Investment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
MGIC Investment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MGIC Investment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MGIC Investment Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MGIC Investment Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 21st of November 2024 MGIC Investment paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MGIH Surges Over 245 percent Amid Strong Market Performance |
MGIC Investment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MGIC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MGIC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGIC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 287.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 363.7 M |
MGIC Investment Technical Analysis
MGIC Investment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MGIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MGIC Investment Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing MGIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MGIC Investment Predictive Forecast Models
MGIC Investment's time-series forecasting models is one of many MGIC Investment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MGIC Investment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MGIC Investment Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about MGIC Investment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MGIC Investment Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MGIC Investment Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 21st of November 2024 MGIC Investment paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MGIH Surges Over 245 percent Amid Strong Market Performance |
Check out MGIC Investment Backtesting, MGIC Investment Valuation, MGIC Investment Correlation, MGIC Investment Hype Analysis, MGIC Investment Volatility, MGIC Investment History as well as MGIC Investment Performance. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGIC Investment. If investors know MGIC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MGIC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.201 | Dividend Share 0.475 | Earnings Share 2.83 | Revenue Per Share 4.449 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.034 |
The market value of MGIC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGIC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGIC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGIC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MGIC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGIC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MGIC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MGIC Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MGIC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.